Independence Day and War: Putin will decide whether to invade

When there is a war in the country, about the upcoming Independence Day, many people think not only as a holiday and a long weekend, but as of the date of the possible occurrence of a large Russian regular troops in the Donbas. It was at the end of August 2014 the situation worsened due to large-scale diversion of the Russian military in Georgia. Last week, terrorists in the east of "encouraging" significant intensification . Against this background, particularly alarming statements ringleader "DNI" Alexander Zakharchenko of disrupting Minsk accords and willingness to "win", as well as a fresh statement of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Ukraine allegedly preparing for a full-scale hostilities.

Agree reasons for concern - abound.

To answer a single question - whether a full-scale offensive in the Donets Basin to begin at the Independence Day - "Observer" addressed to Alexander Skipalsky , Anatolia shovel , Vadim Grechaninov and Pavel Felgenhauer.

Putin provoked Georgia to engage in a war "substantial forces" Russia Ex-deputy head of the SBU, the chairman of the Union of Officers of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Alexander Skipalsky

"The attack may begin any day. Putin must seek out - or turn off this project, or to continue it. And to continue, you need to attack, need revitalization. Which option he chooses - is unknown. So far it does not seem that it is going to collapse this project.

I subscribe to the idea of ​​the analysts who say that Putin repeats Georgian version. He is waiting for a specific activation by Ukraine as a response to provocation to blame Ukraine and connect the considerable forces focused on border and embattled.

When will it be - August 24, or on another day - hard to say.

Provocations can be, including the so-called parade of prisoners. All of this is because such a cynical Russian nature.

I would advise the senior military leadership of Ukraine did not pay attention to the symbolism of the date, and the constant combat readiness, a permanent strengthening of our combat readiness and reasonable for adequate responses to Russian provocations."

We must be prepared for the fact that large-scale military operations are General retired colonel, former chief of the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, former First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anatoly Lopata. "We are talking today about the statement Zakharchenko, but Zakharchenko for us is of no interest. This is the man who does the will of the Russian Federation. If he says things like that, so he got it good, is preparing public opinion - and on the side of the Russian Federation, and in Ukraine.

Relatively large-scale fighting, we should not have any doubt - they will be. But when - it is a matter of time. Last year, they thus celebrated the Independence Day. I do not think that Russia is preparing us for the 24th day of large-scale fighting, but what they are, I have no doubt.

To speak of a sudden we do not have to. What a surprise when we constantly live in a state of war? We must be prepared for this.

The main reason for increased hostilities in the Donbass - is, above all, the fact that Russia has not achieved its strategic goals annexation of the Crimea and the outbreak of war in the east of the country. The aim is to master the entire Ukraine - they need the whole of Ukraine. Yanukovych did not cope with this task and do not give away to Ukraine, as planned, in the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin is still considered achievable this goal. Russia restrains only the international community and patriotism of our people."

The attack is not tied to a date, but looks quite dangerous Russian military expert and journalist Pavel Felgenhauer "I do not participate in decision-making, so I do not know whether a decision to start the summer offensive and to what extent. But these developments and applications are direct evidence of preparation for an offensive.

Now the Kremlin is very necessary to try to shift the blame for what is happening or, at any rate, share it with Kiev - for a foreign audience. On the one hand. On the other hand, Russia's strategic goal remains the same - the offset of the current regime in Kiev. But there are different methods to achieve this goal.

The attack is not confined to a certain date. But the period when you can make a serious military action expires - by October exactly povoyuesh seriously, it makes no sense to attack. So if you act, act now. At the same time, act now scared because promised severe sanctions. So far everything looks a little hesitantly.

What will be the final decision, I can not say right now, but it looks quite dangerous and serious. "

Russia is ready to attack, but it will be decided only after the Court of Boeing Major General Retired, president of the Atlantic Council of Ukraine Vadim Grechaninov "Judging by the statements, it is possible to say that Russia has approached the question offensive. But it is not profitable right now, because the court (in the Donbas downed Boeing - Ed.) Still take place. Let not the military tribunal, but something similar will. Russia wants to hush up the case. And then the war ...

The onset of August 24 is possible with a probability of 50%. If it happens, it happens because - "You boast of independence? Here you are, here you are!" If you do not happen, because - "We are honorable people, we do not want to disturb you celebrate." They keep us in suspense, as they go to war mercenaries - this will be the separatists Donbas, the Caucasus, Udmurtia, and so on.

But I do not believe in the nobility of Russia. From Russia, Putin can expect any meanness, any trick - maybe a trick with this tribunal. It will be so much meanness are so many new things that we do not yet understand. Lavrov very shrewd politician, if he says that we are to blame, he has something in mind.

I believe that we should not be so simplistic, straightforward. We must be vigilant and know that war can be very scary. It is necessary to prepare the aircraft, air defense to prepare, cook coast guard Mariupol stronger. "

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