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The situation on the world oil market one way or another affect the policy of Putin. This will happen when the Russian state with all its repressive filling starts to fail. This scenario and the argument - it is 12-36 months.
But, most of all, a radical change will occur even earlier: the Russian economy is fully explode, and then follow the events that I can not predict, and no one can.
Personal sanctions act on the "inner circle" of Putin, sowing panic, confusion and vacillation. And accusations of crime. Sectoral sanctions and sanctions against individual companies and accelerate the collapse of the Russian economy.
To save the Russian economy from the recession may be t nly restoration of the state and the three branches of government, independent of each other, plus the shift from gangster to entrepreneurial capitalism, neo-feudalism.
And, mind you, rise in the price of oil is not included here!
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