Putin’s deceptive pause: What are Russia’s next steps in Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks restoring relations with the West, while Obama administration is aware of the Kremlin leader’s deceptive behavior and does not fall for a swift “warm up,” suggests Marvin Kalb, a nonresident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy program at Brookings.

"Obama and his top advisers, burned once by Putin when he shocked everyone and seized Crimea in late February 2014, do not want to be burned again. They realize that Putin—once a KGB colonel, now a modern Peter the Great (with a smidgen of Stalin)—is still capable, if he chooses, of throwing Europe and the world into a Cold War-style confrontation,” Kalb wrote in his blog on September 1.

“If left unchecked, that could quickly dominate not only newspaper headlines but also global calculations about war and peace. He has that kind of clout," wrote Kalb

The author suggests that these days, everything in and around Ukraine seems to be in “managed instability.” Putin can bring the crisis closer to a possible solution or he can widen the war. Or, more simply, he can “freeze” it. The key question is: What does Putin have in mind? What are his plans, assuming that he has plans, and is not winging the crisis day by day?

READ ALSORussia amasses heavy weapons and troops for Donbas offensive - SBU
The fact that Russia faces plenty of challenges today makes Putin less inclined to “shoot from the hip” and more interested in an accommodation with the West. Putin knows that Russia’s economy is in deep crisis, suffering a 4.9% GDP decline in Q2 of 2015 year over year and prospects of a 17% inflation, caused in part by Western economic sanctions against Russia and by falling oil prices. Incomes have had to be drastically reduced, setting off mini-strikes in different parts of the country, the author says..................

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Interesting.
There is indeed a pause - the war has stopped for about 3 days now. A major turn-about by Putin.
Putin probably has 11 months left before Russia suffers major economic problems - bankruptsy.
The photo shoot for the shaun Walker Putin idiolizing journalists was interesting.
What was he trying to signal - exercising and laughing with Medvedev?
Or has the Kremlin decided to replace Putin with Medvedev, and they are promoting the latter again in the Russian press?
Medvedev was wearing a 6 dollar watch. One of the people? Putin was wearing a 1000 dollar tracksuit. Elitist.
One thing is for certain - if Putin continues on his present course he will lead Russia to self-destruction.
Maybe Medvedev is seen as the best alternative to a smooth transition to reality by those who are still able and allowed to think in the Kremlin?

It's been quiet, but there was multiple attacks on Marinka, per UEN.

I don't think a move to Medvedev will satisfy Russians. I think many of them have had enough of the dictatorship. The Kremlin is losing a lot of respect as shown in articles I posted recently. Many Russian experts are speaking out as never before. And most of them getting to the point that they're no longer in fear, or don't give a damn any longer.

I hear Putalin wants to negotiate with the west on Dombas which would be a sign of concern on his behalf. Russia is being destroyed. His inner circle's losing tons, in more ways than one. Those key figures is probably what is putting fear into him. Anytime soon, I believe there will be an attempt on his life, just as there was an attempt on Hitlre.

Terrorists aren't happy about the constitutional changes which means the changes weren't to their advantage. And of course, it seems for quite some time, their support from Putin has dissipated. Terrorists are even attacking each other. When someone like Putin puts together a plan like he initially had with second rate thugs and drunkards, nobody can expect a quality result.

He's done everything with such inexperience and at the same time at one point in the past with such a powerful country and can't get a good result. That's all the qualities of a failure waiting to happen.

This is why I continue to think positive of Urkaine's future. Nothing good can come out of this for Putin. In the end, Ukraine and Ukrainians will be able to stand tall and strong that they've defeated the likes of the Kremlin with a force that wasn't ready to begin with. Anyone that says differently doesn't know or bother to look at the facts. Continuing to think positive and defeated isn't the right way to go through life. Nothing good will ever happen to them. ALL concerned should stick together as one and greet victory soon to come.

Слава Україні і слава героя

I agree - Ukraine needs to stand together. To be united.
But - the idiots in the Rada - Liashko and Tymoshenko particularly are more interested in their own bid for stardom than in the future of Ukraine.
The popularist stupidity has started already.
As for Medvedev - I don't know.
That photo shoot was wierd... Normally you get Putin alone - in a plane, in a sub, on a horse.. the cult of the superman - Nietzsche.
I think Medvedev would be seen as a suitable stop-gap in a transition from the madness of Putin to a sustainable economy in Russia.
But it is probably wishful thinking on my part. Putin wants to be dictator for life. I am sure. Who is left to put pressure on him? Maybe nobody. Just like Stalin.