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According to Michael Kaufman in his article for the analytical edition War on the Rocks, is the behavior of Russia is intended to compensate for their inability to use their real strength. The meaning of this work - to make the United States to take Russia seriously as a strategic opponent, extinction risk, and complicate Ukraine's support for the European allies. Flights bombers - not the only reason for the change of perception of Russian America, but part of a consistent and constant demonstration of hostile intent. It makes national security agencies to review existing assumption that Russia does not aspire to a real conflict with NATO, and that Moscow would not start a war. This is proof that this strategy works for the benefit of Moscow.
A few weeks ago, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford described Russia as "an existential threat", and her behavior "alarming" in its category. He was not alone, and his remarks were not accidental. Every officer danced to the music. A few days before the two groups of Russian strategic bombers Tu-95MS paid a visit to the coastline of California and Alaska. The United States must constantly adapt to the cold war with the Russian long-range aviation. Russia has no aircraft carrier battle groups, amphibious ships of the fleet or comparable Expeditionary Force, but it may change the perception of a threat from the world's only superpower.
Statements Defence Minister last week also shows that Russia's efforts to achieve the desired effect. Calling Russia "very, very serious threat," Carter explained that, although the threat is not new, "we did not see Russia as an enemy," and that Russia is behaving "like the enemy in some very important ways."
The aim of the Kremlin is to change the perception of Russia in the US who currently see it more as a regional power in a structural decline. Why would a superpower to conduct substantive talks and to seek compromises with the country, which will be weakened even more tomorrow? If time is on the side of America, the logical approach would be to limit the conflict in Ukraine, Russia to restrain cost and wait. There will be no transactions on the fate of Ukraine or a grand review of security measures in Europe, or fear of threats to Moscow because of the increased US presence in the territory bordering NATO members. Russia also has little chance of curbing the expansionist policies such as the deployment of additional troops in Europe or arms supplies to Ukraine if the US do not take seriously the risks to their own safety. Simply put, the perception of Russia in the United States is a serious problem for Moscow if it hopes to ever get out of this situation without surrender.
Without the ability to make effective use of conventional forces, Russia's nuclear arsenal is almost useless. Of course she can destroy the United States, but this is a long-known fact in the mindset of Americans fixed policy of nuclear deterrence, arms control and strategic arrangements, the stability of which Russia is not willing to violate. Moscow, of course, can quietly break the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, but it is unlikely to greatly affect the strategic balance of the United States. Vladimir Putin deliberately provides high-flown statements about Russia's nuclear readiness and supports the launch of Tu-22M3 bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads. He was not taken lightly by the use of nuclear weapons, and clearly plays a role in organized play. In reality, Russia is expanding its nuclear arsenal is the agreement conditions and does not change your level of readiness. One of the advantages of the Board for more than 15 years is a clear knowledge of their own capabilities, and Vladimir Putin effectively uses the power of stimulation to attract the attention of America. Outside the context of budget cuts, the word "nuclear" is certainly cause for concern in Washington.
In order to change the thinking of the United States, Russia had to literally be on the radar of every commander. In the list of uninvited visits: Sukhoi Su-24, flown on American ships in the Black Sea, and the Su-27 fighter, aggressively intercepting reconnaissance plane RC-135U to the north of Poland, which caused protests by US officials. These incidents have stimulated debate in the media, to increase their weight in the subjective perception. Sweden's Foreign Minister said his people "really afraid" unpredictable behavior of Russia after the naval search Russian submarines in October last year, which sparked panic in the media, although no submarines have not found in Swedish waters. The strength of stimulation works best when the media picked up the news and hype the event.
It's not just the trick. It is a distinctive feature of the purposeful policy of irritation against a force that is so out of the habit of threats from the air, that it was easy to anger. Perhaps the best example of this was the fact that in March, US officials asked Vietnam to stop refueling Russian bombers in Cam Ranh in response to the fact that they were circling over Guam (US Territory) flying over the Pacific Ocean. Given the significant history of defense cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, a similar request was ill-advised, but showed how annoyed the United States such antics. As soon as the incident followed the incident, official letters and briefings gradually accumulate, and Russia has been growing steadily from the corrupting forces to regional strategic adversary.
Having managed to get himself taken seriously, to Russia in all growth is the problem of time. Now she is in a state of strategic confrontation with the West, but in a very disadvantageous position, under pressure from lower oil prices, the economic downturn and the Western sanctions. The Kremlin is firmly stuck in the Ukraine, with no hope of victory, and the economy is teetering on the brink of disaster. Russian leaders worry that sanctions and other penalties will continue longer than the crisis in the framework of the general policy of strangulation. As Milton Friedman once said, "There is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program." Therefore, the Moscow campaign worries the European armed forces and leaders unnerving likelihood that one accident can lead to a major war. Russia is suffering and wants to deliver the same inconveniences everyone else.
The flights of strategic bombers cheap to Moscow, but the headlines and creating concern among ordinary people. European citizens and their representatives get the feeling that this state of affairs requires them to actual material costs. This message is important for Moscow, and everyone should understand it. Russia does not reckless and prudent pretending reckless.
Such flights are well accepted by the internal auditor and Putin's ratings have never been so high as it is now. The Western media have appeared harnessed in this campaign. Headlines describing Russian bomber patrols in international airspace as a global threat, create an image of Moscow as an enemy of the established world order. Today in Russia, a little good news, and even fewer opportunities will emerge as a world power. The only thing she can still do, unlike most countries, it's only superpower to pester with the help of long-range aviation. The reaction of the West only strengthened the concept of such operations. Russian state media, such as RT, never misses a chance to show how Moscow impunity clicks west of the nose.
These flights have bombers and practical value for the Russian General Staff. They train Air Force along the routes of potential impacts, exploring the range of radar, note the time of arrival of fighters and placing air defense. Nevertheless, the Russian strategic bomber fleet is old and small, consists of 16 Tu-160, Tu-60 95 ° C and 60 Tu-22M3s. He will not be able to maintain the activity for a long time, the body planes were made in the Soviet era, and spare parts for them is not so much. Bombers are vulnerable, and even their equipment with modern long-range cruise missiles will not change the military balance. NATO will have to change some things, but the threat is not new. Continuous flight Russia does not improve its military capabilities, and wears it. In the past two months, Russia's air force suffered six failures of various aircraft, which indicates the failure of ground technical teams to keep up with the pace of departures, but this is a small price for a change of strategic thinking in the United States. The size of the Russian Air Force is second only to the United States, and selecting for modernization $ 130 billion. They buy new planes faster than their Western counterparts.
The Russian invasion of Georgia is the main reason why the West sees it as the enemy. The influence of this disturbing campaign should not be overestimated. But it will result in underestimation of the misunderstanding of the Russian tactics. Kremlin leaders want to be seen as a real threat at the level of the Soviet Union to the United States were negotiating with them and find a compromise, but not abused, and ignored the sanctions imposed. Some argue that this approach ultimately leads to self-destruction. However, such an analysis error Moscow smacks of overconfidence.
Russia urged the United States that the escalation of the conflict before the war with NATO can be due to any error. The numerical superiority of Russia in the east of Ukraine and the threat of NATO members on its borders is very real, as well as nuclear capability, while the "revived the goal of" NATO basically - a wonderful slogan. A handful of planes patrolling the Baltic airspace, do not make Russia tremble as members of the NATO bombing of the Kremlin patrols. A "reborn" Europe is not broadcast in the financial or military assistance to Ukraine. Russia is stuck in Ukraine. Her task - not to give Ukraine to succeed, it is much easier than the goal of the West - not to let it fail. In addition, the Kremlin has managed to achieve that Ukraine will not be invited to NATO; now he's just trying to keep the United States from participation in the conflict.
In the coming years Russia does not expect reconciliation and improved relations with the United States. Her plan is to deter hawks in the US administration and the Ministry of War convinced of the seriousness of their intentions. North American Aerospace Defense Command, Strategic Command and other organizations involved in ensuring the survival of the United States, not the pleasure of speculation that Moscow is bluffing or that Putin is a bad strategy. Meanwhile, as Russia is increasing tensions, the countries that are closer to the conflict, such as Germany, are constantly at odds with the United States on Ukraine. Moscow understands that it can not achieve respect and recognition in the United States. Therefore, it cultivates fear. In 2014, President Barack Obama called Russian "regional power" acting "because of the weakness." Thanks, in particular, its air force a year later, Russia has risen to the top of the US list of threats without adding any program to its real military strength, the magazine writes.
Earlier, the "Observer" wrote about why you should not rely on the collapse of Russia. After the economic collapse does not mean that it will be unable to harm its neighbors.
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