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Last week Vladimir Putin delivered his annual address to the Federal Assembly, in which, perhaps more than ever before, with close attention and listened in Russia and in Ukraine and in the West. It is not because his message in 2014, President of the Russian Federation reached the top of oratory. Millions of people have tried to guess the secret meaning of intonations and phrases in the speech of the one who posed a threat to the security of Europe.
Summing up the year, it is, above all, talking about the Crimea, the capture of which, apparently, believes the main achievement of Russia. Despite the fact that "in front of a difficult, stressful time," urged Russians regarded Western economic sanctions as a "stimulus more effectively, accelerate the achievement of their goals." The rhetoric - in the best traditions of the Brezhnev era.
According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, namely sanctions Putin dumps all the deepening problems of the Russian economy.
On a failed project "New Russia", which cost Ukraine lost thousands of lives, the message of Putin - is a word. As a self-proclaimed "DNR" and "LC" where dying from hunger is now retired, where there is no work, no functioning banking system.
Dmitry Oreshkin believes that Putin will still maintain a smoldering hotbed of war in the east of Ukraine - is the only way for him to create the illusion of power. In Russia,with its decrepit economy , fair competition in the chance of winning there.
Putin does not have any resources to expand the ideology of "New Russia"
- Dmitry Borisovich that, in your opinion, is encrypted in the message to the Federal Assembly, Putin?
- The message is encrypted Putin emptiness. It is written in the Soviet genre: starts with the international situation, and then opened some shortcomings, but in the end - the goals are clear, the tasks set for the work comrades. Therefore, the same Soviet-style, and it should be seen, not paying attention to what is said, and what is not said.
- Judging by the fact that about Ukraine, Putin said virtually nothing, the topic for him - the sick ...
- This reluctance to draw attention to the history of Ukraine and, in fact, "sink" so-called "New Russia". In fact, Putin has no economic, political or diplomatic in an international sense, nor even military resources in order to expand the ideology of the "New Russia". That's why he chose it to say nothing, concentrating on the Crimea. For those who are used to reading party documents, it sounds like a signal: we merge the "New Russia" because it still can not do anything there.
- Broken, abandoned toys at the cost of thousands of lives lost, including those of Russian soldiers.
- Bleeding wound in eastern Ukraine, he will not be delayed. But in order to conduct military operations, there are no resources. That time is gone. It will throw some subversive groups, but no more. But Crimea Russia leaves himself - as a symbol of the victory of Putin's vertical.
Ukraine should understand that a number is a neighbor who is in mental inadequacy, which can clearly be seen in the message of Putin. Yes, Crimea will not give up, but in the Russian budget there is another black hole. After all, what is happening in the Crimea, he does not say, but, according to official figures, GDP fell by 11% there.
- Putin has struggled to convince the Russians that the consequences of the annexation of the Crimea justified the historical justice. In Russia, they say, they returned sacred shrines - the ancient Korsun, Chersonesos, Sevastopol ...
- According to international law, which has been recognized and Russia, including the Crimea is a sovereign territory of Ukraine. Russia enters the Crimea troops, in violation of all norms of international law, there is carried out a referendum on secession. It is obvious facts - from all points of view, Russia looks like an aggressor. Therefore, in his message, Putin refers not to the international community, and to the Russian and translates the topic of discussion of legal space in a metaphorical, metaphysical, rhetorical...................
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Putin does not have any resources to expand the ideology of "New Russia".
I can't agree with this. Putin certainly has the resources. Tens of thousands of tanks, and tens of thousands of Russian troops whom he can sacrifice on the altar that is the Donbass.
But the price for Russia would probably be self-annihilation.
What next from Putin?
Yes - he wants to hold onto the Crimea. But it is a big $$ sink without a border with Russia. So he builds bridges to Russia?
Crimea now is a military base, with a million pensioners. No tourism for many years ahead, I would suspect. And many many Ukrainians will never go there again on principle. I certainly won't go there. Same with Russia. Simply too dangerous now for foreigners.
The Donbass. He will probably play stupid diplomatic games, fake elections. But how long can he play games with the west at the price of economic isolation?
I think by next summer he will be in real trouble unless the oil price picks up a lot.
The full-blown war. It is over. He can't start it again. And his mercenaries are voting with their feet. Heading to the next war field - Syria.
Donbass will be occupied by Regular Russian troops. And then what?
When will Ukraine reclaim the border of Lugansk and Donetsk with Russia?
Zacharchenko has said this will never happen. If so - Minsk 2 will never be completed.
Replace Zacharchenko in a month or two? And try to have sanctions dropped if Moscow pulls out of the Donbass? - if the west forgets about Crimea?
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