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In an interview with Belsat, Alesin says the Belarusian leader has no interest in signing any such agreement now. On the one hand, the entire issue has arisen in a way that works against him in the election. And on the other, it undercuts his efforts to seek a rapprochement with the West
At the same time, he continues, the dependence of Belarus on Russia under Lukashenka is “so great” that Russia can “at any moment complicate the situation” and even force the issue of opening a base, something Putin almost certainly will do. So even though Lukashenka may not hurry to put his signature on an agreement, the Kremlin leader will likely get what he wants.
Such a base would be for Russia “an extraordinarily useful place des armes,” Alesin says, given the West’s military buildup in the Baltic countries and Poland. But it would not fundamentally change the position of Belarus because its union treaty with Russia means that in the event of war, Belarus would be on Moscow’s side.