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The worsening crisis from Syria to Libya, forcing the international community to review the sanctions blow to the government of President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, and thus to get a key diplomatic mediator. Recently, a number of senior officials from the United States and the European Union suddenly have suggested that the thaw is not far off.
"Recently, there are clear signs of" appeasement "- says Simon Quijano-Evans (Simon Quijano-Evans), chief economist for emerging markets at Commerzbank AG. - It really looks as if all parties are starting to more noticeable push each other to resolve the current geopolitical turmoil. "
With the accession of Russia the Crimea in 2014, restrictions and prohibitions on the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to Europe tightened and Putin expelled from the Group of Eight. Now the way to complete the isolation of the Russian state officials are preparing France and Germany, which begins to put out what they called the inability of Ukraine comply with their obligations under the peace agreement, which they themselves have helped to come. They also complain that their obligations not fulfilling Russia.
Assessing the situation
Secretary of State John Kerry used the Davos (Switzerland) as an authoritative platform to announce the possibility of lifting the sanctions the United States this year, assuming that the conditions of the so-called Minsk Agreement are fulfilled. This idea was immediately picked up by a plurality of votes.
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German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Monday in the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung urged the United States to establish closer ties with Russia, to help stop the civil war in Syria and to reduce tensions in the Middle East between Sunnis and Shiites. This news comes just as soon as the economy minister Emmanuel Macron (Emmanuel Macron) said their businesses in Moscow that France would like to see sanctions removed by summer.
"Kerry retains the possibility of lifting the sanctions, but Russia needs to do a number of things, namely, to cooperate in Ukraine and Syria, and then the United States will pay some penalties reversed," - says Mark Katz (Mark Katz), teacher management and policy at George Mason University in Fairfax (Virginia).
Katz, a specialist on the Soviet Union, adding that a senior US diplomat is also seeking "to reassure those European allies who are not happy with the sanctions."
Europe has a long-standing dependence on Russian natural gas supplies and is struggling to cope with the crowds of migrant flows through its border from Syria. In view of the start of the Syrian peace talks, scheduled for January 29 - and Russia has a decisive voice at the negotiating table - a crisis in Ukraine is not only the politicians taken into account the fact.
Although Russia has never been completely excluded from international affairs - she has played a key role in the negotiations, in July last year led to a nuclear deal with Iran - relations with the West have suffered, particularly in Syria, where Putin military forces supported by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, whose The US and France have tried to remove from power.
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Calls for the improvement of relations with Russia, demonstrates the success of Putin tried to convince the West of its own interest in conflict resolution, even if it is not so, says James Nixie (James Nixey), program director for Russia and Eurasia at the research center Chatham House, UK.
"The priority of the West is Syria, the priority of Russia - Ukraine; their interests are significantly different from our - Nix said in an interview. - Putin could say: "If we make a deal in Ukraine, and you give me a sphere of influence in Syria, then I unwrap their bombers and take even greater part in the game", which is very attractive for the West, whose main problem - it's not Russian, and Islamic fundamentalism. "
The road to recovery is not without significant obstacles. January 21 UK court ruled that Putin, "likely", endorsed the murder of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko, two government agents decades ago. Adam Shubin, who oversees the sanctions of the US Treasury, said in news program BBC Panorama, Putin is corrupt, and it is the US government has long been known.
The deadline for the Minsk agreement - agreed the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany to resolve the conflict in the Donets Basin in the eastern Ukraine - has been extended this year, as both sides accuse each other of delays in its implementation. At the same time the US and EU restrictions have contributed to a sharp drop in the ruble, whose position was compounded by oil price shocks. It also makes Putin to be more courteous.
For its part, Ukraine requires a complete ceasefire in the war zone and to regain control of its borders with Russia, the only power in Kiev will be able to move forward in the process of the region of large powers.
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Negotiations between France, Germany and Russia to overcome the Ukrainian impasse could be held on February 8 as stated at a press conference in Moscow on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "All of a large number of these partners come to realize that you can not go on living, and it is to his own detriment," - he said.
Schaeuble, for example, believes that finding common ground with Russia possible.
"If I understand the security interests of Russia, there is a problem seen mostly in the plans hatched by Sunni Muslims - Schaeuble wrote in his commentary. - Why do not we develop a joint strategy with Russia to reduce tensions between the Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Iran, along with other Shiite state? "
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