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Posts : 18379
Join date : 2015-05-20
Location : United States

Geopolitical Game interested Putin more than the restoration of the Russian economy

on Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:53 pm
After the September parliamentary elections, in which almost guaranteed to win the pro-Putin party "United Russia" will not interfere causes rapid price increases

Talking about the beginning of recovery of the Russian economy zarano.Uryad not made ​​any steps to stimulate economic growth, it has not begun to stimulate demand, increase costs, mitigate or legislation to strengthen protection of investors' rights, writes Bloomberg .

"The central bank, in turn, in no hurry to cut interest rates. In late July, its leadership decided to leave the key rate at 10.5%, which allows Carry-traders continue to receive high profits and prevents businesses set aside funds for future investment. This year, the size of the key rates were changed only once, in June, when it was reduced from 11% to 10.5% ", - the newspaper notes.

The article said that in late July, economic adviser to Putin, Andrei Belousov, who sincerely believe in the effectiveness of monetary stimulus complained that the ruble too strengthened its position, and President Vladimir Putin also expressed his concern on this issue - but not so convincing, The central bank felt the need to respond to his words. Moreover, the central bank issued a statement that he has no plans to weaken the ruble.

"The central bank could help the government began to buy dollars on the open market to increase reserves. To some extent it already does: this year the volume of gold reserves gradually increased. But this is not enough to withstand the pressure from the Carry-traders ", - says the publication.

Bloomberg writes that Russia has a lot of banking analysts who say that the current ruble justified. Russia's dependence on oil exports decreased slightly when the price for it has fallen. This year, Russia became the world's largest exporter of wheat. Its agricultural sector benefited from Western embargo on food and the relative weakness of the ruble last year. Russia's economy is certainly more stable than in the period of falling oil prices and immediately after the annexation of the Crimea. Investors have become accustomed to the current status of Russia: it is neither a rogue state or economic center of power - it is rather a country that is well suited for trade until the safer countries rates are negative.

"Maybe this is a mistake. The Russian economy is stuck in a state of uncertainty. While Putin runs the country, he is not ready to allow further expansion of economic freedom or launch the privatization of most of the raw materials economy. The privatization of the shares of oil companies, which, in accordance with, the plans should cover the budget deficit this year is not as smooth as it should have happened. Igor Sechin, the head of "Rosneft" - the largest oil company in Russia, which shares the government wants to sell - claims the action "Bashneft", which is also preparing to sell part of its shares. Own privatization terms "Rosneft" stacked so that new investors have the least possible impact on the management of the company ", - stated in the material.

The publication stresses that now Putin is busy permutations within his team, he recently showed willingness to release his old friends and comrades and to appoint to key positions next generation of bureaucrats, many of whom come from the ranks of the services bezpekyOdnak on economic Putin pochevydno can not take changes in the backward structure that he created. He can conduct interviews with experts on alternative scenarios, but it is much more interested in geopolitical games in Syria and Ukraine than to try to restore the Russian economy.

"This means that the government and the central bank will eventually be forced to agree to a weakening of the ruble to cover the budget deficit. Targets for inflation will be shifted again: they are, as the purchasing power of Russians have Putin is much less important than its ability to maintain control over all aspects of life in his country. After the September parliamentary elections, in which almost guaranteed to win the pro-Putin party "United Russia" will have less reason to interfere with the rapid rise in prices. Then the central bank might have to try to influence the exchange rate of the ruble "- sums up edition. In Ukrainian/український
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