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Trump will insist on the liberation of Ukraine from the Russian occupation. Russia has indicated a painful moment for Putin's foreign policy with Trump. U.S. might support alternate format for Donbas conflict settlement other than Minsk agreements.  Trump Administration conducted secret negotiations with Russia on Syria.  US Sanctions for an indefinite period may inhibit recovery of the Russian economy.  Putin claims Russia tries not to meddle in Ukraine's internal affairs.  Some 200,000 Russians to leave Crimea after de-occupation.  In Moscow in advance frightening provocations on opposition rally.  SBU does not prohibit the entry Navalny in Ukraine because of his statements about the Crimea.  Poroshenko instructs government to raise pensions in autumn.

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Why hryvnia is growing and what to expect in the fall

Needless to enjoy the current strengthening of the national currency?

Since the beginning of the month US dollar in Ukraine has fallen, dropping below the 26 USD, the official NBU rate. A few weeks ago gave him 26.3 USD, and two months ago - 26.8. However, in recent days, the US currency is trying to restore its position, but significant changes are observed. At the end of this week the hryvnia National Bank set at 26.01 USD. Thus the average annual rate laid the budget for this year amounts to 27.2 UAH per dollar. Strengthening the national currency continues against the background of global trends depreciation of the dollar, but yesterday's decision of the US Federal Reserve to increase the discount rate to 1-1,25% has to change the situation in favor of the US currency.  

Summer - traditionally favorable period for the hryvnia, unlike the rest of the year when it begins to press the need to purchase enerhnosiyiv. How long will strengthen the Ukrainian currency, and that factors other than seasonality, it is now affected, "head office" has asked to comment on the financial experts. "Cupola" put them three questions:

What factors caused by the strengthening of the hryvnia?

Traditionally, the Ukrainian national currency began to strengthen during the spring and summer due to seasonal factors. Spring reduced demand for dollars from the end of the heating season, while the volume of deals begin to increase. The growth of foreign exchange supply due to the fact that agricultural producers - representatives of the main export sector - continues sowing campaign, and in production costs they pass large amounts of currency. Also season Spring / Summer - the most active in terms of business metal manufacturers, which represent the second largest export sector of the country. Reducing industrial production through trade blockade in the area ATO and corresponding deterioration of macroeconomic forecasts; slowdown in exports of metals and engineering products; a gradual decline in recent months, prices of raw materials - grain, iron ore, steel - on world markets will put pressure on the currency market. In contrast, negative factors significant growth capital investments in the early years has stimulated an increase in production of construction materials and machinery. Also a positive impact on the currency market the systematic increase in foreign reserves - both through cooperation with the IMF, and because monetary policy National Bank.

How stable dynamics can have this process? Your forecast for the second half of the year .

It is understood that a systematic increase in international reserves - a temporary phenomenon, without the necessary reforms that are waiting for international financial partners. In particular, this applies to the opening of the land market, pension reform - a key factor for the further implementation of the program EFF. This year, Ukraine has begun to fulfill its obligations foreign debts - the resources of this is coming from international reserves. Thus, the foreign exchange market stable and predictable formation rate considerably influence and political will to carry out reforms they need for real improvement in the investment climate. Among the positive factors for the exchange rate should be noted a significant increase in exports of Ukrainian goods to the EU. Thus, in the first quarter of this year it increased by 25 percent. In sum, we forecast that in the short term - for two to three months - will keep the hryvnia stable enough position and vary between 26 hryvnia per dollar.

To what level can rise hryvnia?

For more substantial consolidation we did not expect. First, major fluctuations in the market in any direction stops, the National Bank by buying the currency at auctions. Now it allows the regulator to strengthen reserves in the future will be a stimulating factor in the exchange rate. Secondly, there are still many risk factors that affect the rate. Growth in the dollar, we expect the fall is traditionally the beginning of the heating season and with increased energy imports during that require additional amounts of currency. And in case of implementation of existing forecasts for inflation, macroeconomic indicators and further cooperation with international financial institutions, the devaluation is completely uncritical - in the range of 1-1.5 UAH.

In your opinion, what factors caused strengthen the hryvnia than seasonal?

It is seasonal and situational. Good first quarter for our exports provided the high prices for iron ore, steel, grain. Then there was the influx of money from Eurovision is on the cash market, the rapid decline in prices for diesel and other fuels due to lower oil prices. A similar situation was in the first half of 2008 - then the rate strengthened to 4.65 hryvnia per dollar.

This process can be stable dynamics? Your forecast for the second half of the year.

I think the beginning of August we will have a stable market, and then we will see. Everything will depend on the situation in the ATO, commodity prices and yield.

To what level can rise hryvnia?

I do not think that the NBU should allow a significant strengthening of the hryvnia. 25-27 hryvnia for one dollar - is acceptable corridor to form reserves that we lost in 2014........................

For full access to article: , Original in Ukrainian / на українському  
It became aware of the Trump attitude to new sanctions against Russia

Administration of US President Donald Trump plans after the Republicans in the House to amend the bill on new sanctions against Russia to obtain Trump possibility of their change or cancellation.

Told a senior source in the White House, reports Politico .

"The White House is concerned that the bill Binds his hands when working on US-Russian relations, as Secretary of State publicly said Rex Tillerson," - said in the article publication.

At the same time, the source stressed that the White House supports sanctions against Russia, although "political consequences of any veto has not yet been discussed."

"Since the State Department is actively engaged with lawmakers, the White House confident that it has allies in the House who are also concerned about the prospect of a violation of tradition and restraint executive control over the sanctions," - says the publication.

Recall, this week the US Senate approved a bill to expand sanctions against Russia. According to the document, anti-Russian sanctions are transferred from the presidential decrees of the law, which complicates the process of easing or abolition. Now the document must pass approval in the House of Representatives, and then - go to the President of the USA. , Original in Ukrainian / на українському  
The number of citizens of Ukraine who consider themselves Ukrainian by birth is 90.6% of the population, Russians - 6.3%

This is according to the poll conducted by leading sociological centers of the country (KIIS rating, SOCIS Center Razumkov), which suggests in his article in the "Mirror of the Week" MP Igor Hryniv and Polish politician Miroslav Cech.

However, most Ukrainian national identity declare young people aged 18 to 24 years.

"In comparison should provide data on the ethnic composition of the population of Ukraine according to the censuses of 1989 and 2001 .: Ukrainian -72.7 and 77.8%, respectively and 17.3 -22.1 Russian and other -5,2 and 4.9% ", - stated in the article.

The authors concluded that the national structure of the population of Ukraine affected Russian occupation of Crimea and of Donbass, where many ethnic Russians, but noted that the sharp decrease in the number of people declared Russian or other national identity occurred not only due to the occupation of ethnically non-Ukrainian territories as in the occupied territories were not only Russians, but also many Ukrainian.

The survey was conducted in four major sociological centers in Ukraine in March of this year. It involved 14,000 respondents, 500 in each region, and in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa - in 1000., Original in Ukrainian / на українському
US Sanctions for an indefinite period may inhibit recovery of the Russian economy

The impact of financial sanctions west disastrous for the Russian economy and its collapse in recent years connected largely with them, not with the fall in oil prices, the director of the Institute of Energy Policy Vladimir Milov.

Introduced in the US Senate bill on sanctions against Russia is not new, but it raises the status of similar decrees of former US President Baraka Obamy to compel the US president Donald Trump to agree any steps to repeal or mitigate these sanctions with the Congress. This was told by a Russian politician, Director of the Institute of Energy Policy Vladimir Milov in comments RBC.

He noted that, given the broad support of Congress, we can definitely say that if adopted sanctions against Russia will remain.

"Contrary to popular belief, including the statements Vladimira Putina during a" straight line "of the alleged low impact of these sanctions on the Russian economy, in fact, their influence disastrous, and in general our economic collapse of recent years is associated largely with these sanctions, not with, the drop in oil prices, "- said the politician.

Milov said that as of July 1, 2014, when there was a downed Malaysian "Boeing" of Donbas and were not introduced the most stringent anti-Russian sanctions, Russian corporations and banks gained a record amount of foreign loans to $ 660 billion. According to him, for this was funded by the restoration of the Russian economy after the crisis of 2008-2009.

"Our own financial system for 25 years, never learned to generate long-term loans (average term of deposits is about a year, the vast majority of bank deposits - up to one year). Such money can only give us a foreign country", - he explained.

Now that Russia has got an international credit blockade, get foreign loans to Russian companies and banks has been extremely difficult, and many lenders are very careful work with any borrowing from the Russian Federation.
"In this case, the old debt had to pay, and therefore can not be refinanced Hopes for China were initially unfounded:. China's financial system is not comparable with the West ... As a result, the total portfolio of foreign loans of Russian banks and companies fell from $ 660 billion in mid-2014 to approximately $ 460-470 billion in recent years ", - continued the Director of the Institute of energy policy.

He stressed that to hold on Western financial markets, Russia still can not, which is extremely painful for the economy.

"Oil played here much smaller role prices, as their decline was offset by spending of the Reserve Fund and a sharp drop in imports, but the credit crunch in the $ 200 billion to replace proved nothing These sanctions Kremlin would like to see abolished in the first place." - said Milov .

He noted that now the prospect of lifting the sanctions seriously delayed due to the investigation of the Russian intervention in US elections. Although the new law does not impose direct new sanctions, it does not exclude them.
"Possible new sanctions - reducing the length of the available Western loans to 14 days, the imposition of sanctions against oil and gas companies from third countries, working with Russia, as well as possible sanctions against the new export pipeline (US senators are clearly trying to block the project Nord Stream-2)" - Milov said.

He explained that the new sanctions are the bill is not directly and require the President or Treasury solution for their introduction and locking Nord Stream-2, even in Russia's interest, because the financing of this "ultradorogogo project" partly funded by Russian taxpayers, and the project only it needed in order to "punish Ukraine".

"For Russia, the US financial sanctions freezing for an indefinite period - is in itself a serious matter that can greatly slow down the recovery of the Russian economy so unrestrainedly to borrow on international markets, as we did in 2010-2014, when the corporate foreign debt rose from $ 360 billion. up to $ 660 billion, we can no longer "- summed up policies.

In October 2016 the US government officially accused Russia of hacking into the servers of US parties and interfering in the process of presidential elections in the country. In the Kremlin, the prosecution called a "nonsense" .
June 15 the Senate passed a bill on sanctions against Iran and Russia . The bill imposes restrictions against individuals and organizations that contribute to cyber attacks, as well as the cost for the provision of arms to the Government of Syria. Sanctions may affect the mining, steel, shipping and other sectors of the Russian economy .

For final approval by the initiative is to support the House of Representatives, and then the bill goes to the president for approval by Donald Trump. , Original in Russian / На русском
"Russia will do its best to support Donbas residents, regardless of external factors," - Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow would "do its best to minimize the damage" inflicted by military aggression of Russia in the Donbas.

Censor.NET reports citing

"This is tragedy, a huge one. We will do our best to minimize the damage inflicted there," Putin said.

He added that Russia will do its best to support Donbas residents, regardless of external factors.

The Russian president noted that he hoped that "current Kyiv government has enough common sense to fulfill the Minsk agreements."

Watch more: Putin on possible Russia-US war: "I don't think anyone would survive such a conflict". VIDEO

"But we can see the problems there are not getting smaller, but partially bigger. We will analyze the situation to make timely decisions adequate for the situation," Putin said.

Earlier, Ukraine's NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov said Ukraine should end the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in the east and shift to a new format of defending the country from the hybrid war with Russia. , Original in Ukrainian / на українському
on Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:59 amAdmin
Two Russian Opposition Activists Flee To Ukraine

Two activists from Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny's Anticorruption Foundation (FBK) have fled to Ukraine after state media regulator Roskomnadzor launched investigations against them.

Vladislav Zdolnikov, an FBK IT consultant, and activist Aleksandr Brusentsev crossed into Ukraine on June 15.

The activists told the BBC that Roskomnadzor suspected them of illegally blocking access to some websites by using a vulnerability of the government's system for blocking banned websites.

Ukraine's Border Guard Service said on June 15 that two members of Navalny’s foundation had asked for political asylum. However, the activists told the BBC that they had not asked for asylum and were not planning to do so.

They said they planned to stay in Ukraine temporarily until the situation around Roskomnadzor's allegations was cleared up.....................
Putin Accuses Russia's Foes Of 'Excessive Demonization' Of Stalin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the "excessive demonization" of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin "is one means of attacking the Soviet Union and Russia."

Putin made the comments in the last of four installments of a series of interviews that he gave to U.S. filmmaker Oliver Stone, which was aired on June 15.

Putin said Russia's critics use Stalin's legacy "to show that today's Russia carries on itself some kind of birthmarks of Stalinism."

The Russian president did not elaborate on what he considered to be "excessive" criticism of Stalin, who ruled the Soviet Union from the mid-1920s until his death in 1953 and who was responsible for the deaths of 15 million to 30 million Soviet citizens through executions, labor camps, and avoidable famines.

In the past, Putin has praised Stalin as an "effective manager," and Stalin's reputation in Russia has been growing steadily since Putin came to power in 2000.

A poll in April by the independent Levada research center found that 25 percent of Russians consider Stalin's repressions "historically justified," while another 13 percent said they knew "nothing" about Stalin's crimes..............
SBU does not prohibit the entry Navalny in Ukraine because of his statements about the Crimea

Russian opposition leaders Alekseyu Navalnomu as of June 12 are allowed to enter into Ukraine, despite his statement about the need to hold a second referendum in Russia annexed Crimea. The absence of a ban on entry into the country was confirmed by the Security Service of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) is not prohibited from entering Ukraine Alekseyu Navalnomu Russian opposition politician because of his statements about the need for a second referendum in the occupied Crimea, said in response to a request of the SBU , "Ukrainian News".

"At your request from 12.06.2017, regarding the prohibition of entry to Ukraine citizens of Russia Navalnomu A. A. report the following as of the date of the decision regarding the request of prohibition to enter the specified citizen on the territory of Ukraine Security Service of Ukraine has been taken." - said in response to the SBU.

December 14, 2016, Navalny expressed a desire to participate in the election of the President of Russia in 2018 . He said that goes to the polls, "a program on how to make a fair and modern Russian Federation." According to the Russian opposition in deciding whether an occupied Crimea, the first step should be to conduct a "normal referendum".

Russian occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol after the illegal referendum March 16, 2014 . Joining the peninsula to the Russian Federation and Ukraine is not recognized by most countries of the world. , Original in Ukrainian / на українському
U.S. might support alternate format for Donbas conflict settlement other than Minsk agreements, - Department of State

However, the U.S. remains committed to the Minsk agreements and continues to call upon the parties to honor those commitments.

This was announced by Heather Nauert, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State during a briefing on Thursday, Censor.NET reports.

"If they [the parties to the Minsk accords - ed.] were to come to some sort of an agreement on their own through some sort of different mechanism, and those parties could adhere to it and agree to it and it would be successful, I think that would be something that we would be open to supporting that," Nauert said.

She also said the U.S. remains "committed to the Minsk agreements. The various parties signed on to that, and so we continue to call upon those parties to honor those commitments. We are not satisfied with the progress in implementing the agreements. We are deeply disturbed by the escalating violence in Donbas," the spokesperson said.

Earlier, the U.S. Department of State was searching for a diplomat candidate to hold talks with Russia on Ukraine situation., Original in Ukrainian / на українському
Trump will insist on the liberation of Ukraine from the Russian occupation - adviser to US President Giuliani

US interests, President Donald Trump puts much higher than Russia's interests, says an informal adviser to the US president, former New York Mayor Rudolf Giuliani.

Ukraine's liberation from Russian occupation is one of the most important priorities for the United States, he said in an interview with "New time" informal adviser to the US president, Donald Trump, former New York Mayor Rudolf Giuliani.

"Ukraine free from Russian occupation, - one of the most important US interests, and Trump will insist on this interest and to achieve it", - said Giuliani.

According to him, the impression of softness toward Russia may emerge from some of the comments Trump during his election campaign. However, Giuliani stressed Trump as president, more deeply into the essence of international relations. As an example, he cited Syria, which, according to him, is an ally of Russia.

"Trump ordered to bomb Syrian military base, and it is clear that in its actions it puts US interests far above the interests of Russia," - said the ex-mayor of New York.

Russian occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol after the illegal referendum March 16, 2014 . Joining the peninsula to the Russian Federation and Ukraine is not recognized by most countries of the world. In April 2014 armed conflict broke out in the east of Ukraine. The fighting going on between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels, who control part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Economic sanctions against Russia were imposed by the United States, the European Union and some other countries in the spring of 2014 after the annexation of the Crimea and the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbas. Sanctions package extends and tightened several times. So, March 2, 2016, US President Barack Obama extended the anti-Russian sanctions for a year . The US Senate on June 14 supported the inclusion of an amendment to tighten anti-Russian sanctions bill, which was originally aimed at increasing pressure on Iran. , Original in Ukrainian / на українському
Russia has indicated a painful moment for Putin's foreign policy with Trump

US preparing to impose new sanctions against Russia, and the president of the United States avoids meeting with Vladimir Putin, which is a very bad moment for the leader of.

This is a comment "apostrophe" said the leader of the Russian opposition political party "Western Choice" Konstantin Borovoy.

"The element of fear during the hotline was present. I think quite painful for Putin and the fact that it will soon be held meeting of presidents of the United States and Ukraine because Moscow makes incredible efforts to organize meetings and negotiations chapters Kremlin with Donald Trump. And as a result minimum "- said., Original in Ukrainian / на українському  
Putin claims Russia tries not to meddle in Ukraine's internal affairs

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Russia is trying "not to meddle in the internal affairs of Ukraine."

Answering a question from a male named Dmytro from Kyiv who asked Putin during the 15th Q&A Direct Line on Thursday, June 15: "Why have you abandoned us? Why do Russian television channels smear us with the same paint?" Putin said: "Thank you for cherishing our common history... We do not smear anyone with any paint... We generally try not to smear anybody with black paint..."

"We are afraid of inflicting damage – we do not want to meddle in the internal political processes of Ukraine," Putin added................
Some 200,000 Russians to leave Crimea after de-occupation – Chubarov

Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, Member of Parliament of Ukraine Refat Chubarov has told Ukrainian TV Channel 5 that people who moved to the peninsula after Russia's annexation will have to leave it after returning Crimea to Ukraine.

"It will be a 'purge' of the peninsula… All those who arrived in Crimea after February 20, 2014, will have to leave. That is at least 200,000 people, including military, prosecutor's office, FSB [Russia's security service], and police. Some 200,000 people have to leave it with the last Russian soldier," Chubarov said.

Mejlis Chairman also noted that the traitors of Ukraine should leave the peninsula as well, but he is convinced that they will do it on their own..............
Poroshenko instructs government to raise pensions in autumn

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to modernize pensions in autumn 2017, that is to increase their level and abolish taxation.

"Modernization means the elimination of injustice," the head of state said.
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