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In their view, the fall of the ruble may exceed the natural rate of decline due to falling oil prices. Oil analysts say next year will not be able to recover up to $ 65 per barrel, as expected. "Taking into account the effect of a larger slowdown in China and the increase in supply of Iranian oil average price of Urals can make only $ 55 a barrel," - they point out. By the low oil prices and the foreign exchange market shocks lead external factors, analysts say. First, Russia can impact on the crisis in Greece and the risk of leaving the euro zone. The direct effect of this is negligible for Russia, but we can not exclude shocks on the foreign exchange market and the devaluation of the euro, analysts say.
Second, Russia can impact on the bursting of the bubble in the stock market of China. The Chinese stock market has lost over the last month 30% of capitalization, it can lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in China. For Russia, the impact of the slowdown - a shock in demand for raw materials, analysts say. According to them, is expected to reduce prices for energy and metals.
Third, to Russia will affect the lifting of sanctions with Iran. Agreement on Iran - a positive development for the world, but it almost immediately lead to shock in the oil market.
Fourth shock - is, according to analysts of the Savings Bank, the US Federal Reserve rate hike. The rate increase will strengthen the dollar, and thus further reduction in prices for gold and oil. In the fourth quarter of 2015 may occur at the same time a number of external shocks, says the director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia Yulia Tseplyaeva. "It may be that the oil price will go down simultaneously, for example again to $ 45 per barrel. Let it be a short-term phenomenon, but it will be a shock that would lead to the fall of the ruble," - says Tseplyaeva. She added that he sees no fundamental reason for the weakening of the ruble, but we can not exclude a short-term shock of falling.
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