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Posts : 18379
Join date : 2015-05-20
Location : United States

In Russia, told the conditions under which Putin could leave the Donbass

on Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:42 pm
Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to shift the Ukraine care about the occupied territories of the pro-Russian terrorists, but he intends to leave the Donbass on a winning note.

This is a Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin wrote in his blog on the website " New Era." "Observer" brings his opinion completely:

"What caused the signing of the recently announced third-Minsk agreement? First, the West is interested to stabilize the conflict in the Donbass, because in the long run," the DNI / LC "will gradually turn up, because under the leadership of Russia is no economic growth will not be there. The West advantageous to freeze the conflict, and let it rot second Transnistria safely.

Putin is also beneficial. So he keeps his pants Ukraine, and does not allow her to go to Europe. In addition, it is necessary to keep the winning expression on his face, because he actually merges these psevdorespubliki. Leaving de facto from the Donbass, and dumping the responsibility for it in the Ukraine, Putin wanted to look like a winner. To do this, it needs small victories. As before, he lost the whole Ukraine and Crimea goodbye a bit off, so today he demands to withdraw Ukrainian forces out of Shirokino.

In other words, he says he will leave the Donbass, but he needed something triumphant. So let the Ukrainians withdraw troops from there. On the one hand, this is a purely symbolic action, but on the other - meaning that over Mariupol will constantly hang power fist. Putin needs to scare the one hand, to scare the Ukraine to Kiev under constant stress, but on the other - Russians say that they came out winners from this situation. Say, we drove from zhidobanderovtsev Shirokino. And if Ukraine things go too well, you can always throw her some stuff. And of course Russia is supposed to be innocent.

In contrast to what is said by Russian propaganda, neither Europe nor the United States is in no way interested in an escalation of military opposition. And it happens for the simple reason that only in the military sphere, Putin has what is called parity. Equality, of course not, but the parity is maintained due to the fact that both sides have nuclear weapons.

In this sense, the war with Russia - it's a disaster, and no one seriously intends to do so. In all other areas, except the military, Putin has no preference - in the economic, financial and media field he is weaker. Therefore, it is constantly teetering on the brink of war, frightening the West pull into a military conflict.

In addition, the Kremlin has consistently insisted that Europe and the US are pushing Ukraine closer to a military solution to the conflict. But this obvious lie. West remembers how 25 years ago in the peaceful economic and ideological competition, he won easily (using the terminology of Putin) Soviet Union. Eighteen months ago the same peace by the West played in Russia the Ukraine. Now the same methods he wins back Transnistria.

The situation is quite simple: the West is interested in freezing the conflict in order to Donbass, gasping under the leadership of the ruling there lads, finally failed in economic terms, and went to another weights around the neck of the Russian economy.

There is the inevitable transition from war hysteria which gripped Russia and valiant military to peaceful tug of Donbass perepihivaniyu. To pay for the broken dishes Putin does not want and can not, he simply did not have enough money. So he wants this hot potato to push the collar Poroshenko.

Poroshenko also understand that in the next 10-20 years Donbass not be a zone of stability and economic growth, where he and his team could count on the support. Therefore, the Ukrainian president is in no hurry to take responsibility for this territory. And we are witnesses to the fact: what happens is another thing perepihivanie.

Putin has not yet recognized the two breakaway republics only because he did not want to take them on a hump, doubts that Russia will be able to pull this territory. He is much more profitable to keep it as a special area within Ukraine, which de facto largely depends on Moscow and pays for the pleasure of Kiev.

Thus, as part of the Donbass in Ukraine will continue to glow hearth, where you can, if necessary, pour kerosinchika to Poroshenko did not seem life honey. In addition, it will ensure nevhozhdenie Ukraine into NATO, which is not allowed to unresolved territorial issues."

As reported by the "Observer", formerly a journalist Vitaly Portnikov vіrazil opinion that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in the success of the Minsk Agreement and considers the negotiations only as a way to delay the time. In Russian

This man is taking too lightly the cost on Russia's economy this is causing. Putalin won't gain any victory.

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