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Admin, Gordon

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Dean of the Moscow State University: Now comes the clinical death of the Russian economy

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Dean of the Moscow State University: Now comes the clinical death of the Russian economy

Post by Admin on Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Doctor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University Alexander Auzan University shared his reasoning is in what position is the economy as it is to revive and what to bet in the future.

"Now comes the clinical death of the economy. This is a condition where the heart stops economic - investment engine. The slowdown comes from 2011, it is not a surprise to economists. Penalties fall in oil prices only exacerbated and accelerated what would have happened anyway, "- he said the site Harvard Business Review.

"Russia 50 years, since 1965, with the opening Samotlor - Russia's largest oil field - struggled with the desire to retire. The field was discovered at a time when they tried to hold Kosygin economic reform. And the government decided: God is with them, with the reforms that have oil. Since that decision was repeatedly reproduced by different authorities. Seven or eight years ago, the economists working on the strategy in 2020, said in unison: "Raw care model, domestic demand is not enough, so you need to change the model, otherwise there will be irreversible." This is irreversible and there is "- said the dean of Moscow State University.

I auzan sure that there are only two ways to revive the economy of the Russian Federation.

"The first - to carry out structural reforms to create an attractive investment climate, and then start working magnet attracting private investment, domestic and foreign. This is a course on which insist the government and the Central Bank of Russia. I believe that it should be done, but the effect will not be: in order to investment flowed, enough to improve the investment climate. Because there is a war - cold, economic, which periodically erupts and how hot is not in the civil war in Ukraine - it's much broader and more serious. This fact is in sharp contrast to the liberal economic policy of the government. If the sanctions regime, which may be foreign investment ?! Plus the war - is always a risk to domestic investment: it is not clear what to expect and what will be, "- says an economist.

The second way - to the attention of government investment.

"Unfortunately, they are much less than many seem to, because we do not have to consider the reserves of the National Bank as a source of investments: they only need to maintain macroeconomic stability. Today, government investment can make to different estimates from seven to nine trillion rubles, and it is not much. Before the crisis, annual investment in Russia was 15 trillion, so that current resources will not be enough for a year. In addition, public investment - is a kind of electric stimulation of the heart. It comes knocking, but then again can stop. If you do a massive stuffing of public investment, will certainly want to enter foreign exchange restrictions on the perimeter, or the money will disappear - they quickly and quietly for us to absorb the world market. Enter these restrictions is easier than stopping cold war. They do not affect the population, conversion - only the movement of capital. But it is still bad, if all, and let no one out, investors will not. I am convinced that the method of stuffing government investment will be applied. Will the result of it is unknown. Of course, I am able to start some projects, mainly infrastructure, including, perhaps, important to our sense of self: the space, the Arctic. It will be possible to raise the rate of growth - not to five per cent, but before two or three in 2018. That's all. If you do not earn a bunch of constant public and private investments, the rates still fall - only reserves will be gone. And we find ourselves at the same point, but in a more difficult situation, "- said Auzan.

"It is necessary to introduce elaborate schemes of public-private partnership set up special community to invest in infrastructure to the state money under the guarantee to issue bonds and invest private money, such as pension, under the state guarantees their profitability. That is to weave such a combination of public and private money that was not only the injection of adrenaline makes the heart beat, but walked support private investment. Thus it is necessary to end the war. This task is not humanitarian, not military-political and economic. Otherwise, no matter how we improved climate, we do not get our industry quite cheap credit resources ", - quotes the expert "Belarusian partisan".

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