Money and Finance in Ukraine

In this thread -
Exchange rates, up to date information.
How to send money to Ukraine.
Ways to bring money to Ukraine, or obtain it yourself.
Other financial informatiion.
====

UPDATE - 05 Sept 2015. Exchange bureau where I am.
1 dollar = 23.00 / 23.35 hryvnia

www.xe.com currently showing

Hryvnia for one dollar // euro // pound // India // Aust // Canada
Currency rates: 22.5993 25.9531 35.4791 0.34127 16.1058 16.9939

I took a walk to the mall yesterday. At the Bureau de Change they were offering 23.00 / 23.55 for a dollar.
====

Commentary -
The Ukrainian hrvynia (UAH) has been stable now at the 22 - 23 mark for one dollar for several months, after earlier termoil - a year ago - following the Maidan Revolution, and Putin's invasion and occupation of the Crimea and the extreme east of the country.
The currency drifts up and down a little, but I expect that the central bank also helps stabilize things out.
There are still currently fairly strong currency controls in place, but these are gradually being relaxed as the situation in the war against Russia stabilizes.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/08/ukraines-fiscal-crisis
AFTER months of talks, markets are expecting an announcement soon about the resolution of Ukraine's debt crisis. On August 24th news leaked that Ukraine and its creditors had agreed to a 20% haircut on $19 billion-worth of debt (the rumours have not been confirmed)....
The important thing to watch out for when a deal is announced is how the IMF responds.


=====
This article, in The Economist,  from yesterday.
Similar in the WSJ -
=====
Ukraine’s Government Nearing Deal on Debt Restructuring
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-government-nearing-deal-on-debt-restructuring-1440424017
Ukraine, meanwhile, said bondholders should take a 40% haircut. The country’s finance minister, Natalie Jaresko, threatened to suspend debt repayments if the committee refused to agree to the terms.
=====
This lady knows her stuff. I saw her at the weekend. Here she is talking to the Crimean leader in exile, Mustafa Jermilev:
UEN Exclusive Photo

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/ukraine-reaches-restructuring-deal-with-20-writedown-to-bonds
“It’s been a very difficult five months," said Jaresko, a Chicago native who was given Ukrainian citizenship when Poroshenko appointed her finance minister last December. "I’m confident that the markets will receive this quite well,” she said in an interview on Wednesday.
===
Also says - Russia rejects request to accept new terms on $3 billion bond.
It will be interesting to see how the currency markets react to this - and bank shares.
====
Article above seems very similar to this in the FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/090329f6-4c96-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html#axzz3k17gaN3F

www.xe.com 1 minute ago

Hryvnia to one dollar // one euro // one pound
Inverse: 21.0999 23.8040 32.5765

Yesterday i saw 23 / 23.55 at the exchange bureau. Tomorrow - likely to be nearer 21 I would think. A move of near 10%.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov says that Russia is not planning to participate in the restructuring of Ukraine's sovereign debt.

Russia will not agree to a 20% writedown to the face value of about $3 billion of "the so-called [ex-president Viktor] Yanukovych eurobonds," Siluanov announced on Thursday.

As UNIAN reported with reference to Bloomberg, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko has reached an accord with a Franklin Templeton-led creditor committee that includes a 20% writedown to the face value of about $18 billion of eurobonds, the first of which matures in less than a month. The agreement also pushes back redemption dates by four years and sets interest at 7.75% on all maturities, according to an e-mailed statement from the Finance Ministry......

unian.info

"The default that our enemies were waiting for will not take place," he said while opening an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Thursday.

"Thanks to the efforts of the finance minister and the Ukrainian government, we've managed to receive the following conditions: the first is that 20% of the country's debt is written off by our creditors," Yatseniuk said.

He added that this concerns the write-down of almost $ 4 billion.................

interfax.com.ua

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided to cut the refinancing rate from 30% to 27% as of August 28, NBU Governor Valeria Gontareva said at a briefing on Thursday.

unian.info

Ukraine agreed a restructuring deal with creditors after five months of talks, Bloomberg agency reported.

Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko reached an accord that includes a 20% writedown to the face value of about $ 18 billion of eurobonds, the first of which matures in less than a month.

interfax.com.ua In Ukrainian

www.xe.com
Hryvnia for one dollar // one euro // one pound
Inverse: 21.8498 24.5937 33.3991

Relatively stable. The hryvnia has been in the 21 - 23 area for several months' now.
The British pound, however, has fallen significantly against the euro and dollar in the past two weeks.
So fewer hryvnia to a pound.
===
The Russian ruble - has strengthened a little in the past week.
Rubles for one dollar // one euro // one pound
Inverse: 66.7238 75.1055 101.956

It did hit 71 briefly - i think at the start of last week.
===

www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Oil and gas prices falling again. Brent back below 50 dollars.

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME ET 2 DAY
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
USD/bbl. 44.48 -0.93 -2.05% OCT 15 02:56:20
Brent Crude (ICE)
USD/bbl. 48.69 -0.87 -1.76% OCT 15 02:55:23
Crude Oil (Tokyo)
JPY/kl 37,130.00 -3,530.00 -8.68% FEB 16 02:20:33
Natural Gas (Nymex)
USD/MMBtu 2.67 -0.03 -1.26% OCT 15 02:52:16

I would expect the ruble to fall again on this news, unless the Russian bank decides to intervene again.
Gazprom announced that there were no plans to sell gas to Ukraine in the near future.
Although they did suggest a price of 252 / 1000 cu m.
But Ukraine likely does well to wait. The price is falling lower - and typically lags the oil price by about half a year.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/volatile-ruble-sinks-after-us-oil-stock-build/529293.html
The closely watched U.S. inventories data, which showed crude stockpiles rising by an unexpectedly large amount, quashed attempts by the oil price and ruble to recover.
After the data, international oil benchmark Brent fell 2.5 percent on the day to $48.3 per barrel.
"Oil is back on the downtrend, that's the main story for the ruble," said Tatiana Orlova, EM strategist at RBS in London.
====
America is by far the largest consumer of oil in the world. Why - is another question.
Any fall in the price will help Ukraine tremendously.
Very inefficient heating in houses here. And inflation quite high still.
Electricity prices rose 25% this month.

12:00
http://kontrakty.ua/article/89482
====
Good news. Maybe they can build it up a little by keeping the hryvnia low on the currency markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-24/ukraine-cuts-key-rate-for-second-month-as-inflation-subsides
The National Bank of Ukraine earlier in the day trimmed its benchmark to 22 percent from 27 percent, effective Sept. 25, citing “a gradual decline in risks to price stability." The recent slowdown in inflation will continue, Gontareva said.
====
Quite significant.
Inflation is now slowing. The hryvnia, if anything, has strengthened over the past couple of weeks, with the debt deal, and also reports of over 1 billion usd in the reserves.
The hryvnia today was a lot stronger. 21.2 to a dollar, last I looked. It has been in the 22 - 23 range for the past month.
Banks may also reduce their rates to savers. They have been offering in the area of 22 - 25 % on savings. Not bad! Risky, of course.
Much may depend upon the price of oil and gas.
Ukraine has been lucky in that oil and gas prices have been falling during a period of major economic restructuring.
Otherwise inflation would be simply crazy. Instead, prices are good at the moment. End of summer. Food is currently very cheap.
Next year the National bank suggest inflation at 12%. Perhaps optimistic.
It depends if the government keep putting up the price of gas and electricity. If not, then things should slowly stabilize.

Analyst: “We are keeping our initial forecast of a USD 2.2 bln deficit (2.4% of GDP) in 2015 and project a USD 3.7 bln CA deficit (3.9% of GDP) in 2016.”

KYIV, Oct 1, 2015 (UBO) - Ukraine’s current account (CA) balance reached a USD 60 mln surplus in August compared to a USD 103 mln deficit a year ago, Concorde Capital informed clients today, based on a National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) report of Sept. 30.

The CA surplus was almost at the same level of USD 78 mln in July. The main factor was nearly equal declines in exports (-25.4% yoy) and imports (-25.6% yoy). Goods exports fell 28.0% yoy due to minerals (-52% yoy), metals (-36% yoy) and food (-14% yoy). Imports slid 27.2% yoy on the back of food (-42% yoy), chemicals (-21% yoy), energy (-20% yoy) and machinery (-18% yoy).

Ukraine’s current account was in deficit of USD 133 mln in 8M15 (vs. a deficit of USD 2,346 mln in 8M14), NBU reported.

Ukraine’s financial accounts strengthened to a USD 444 mln surplus in August compared to a USD 57 mln surplus a year ago (and USD 317 mln surplus in the prior month). Strengthened FDI inflow (USD 642 mln compared to USD 149 mln in the prior month), a loan from the World Bank (USD 500 mln) as well as foreign currency returning to the banking system (USD 291 mln compared to USD 93 mln in July) were the key factors behind the improved financial flow. The general balance in August was reported at a USD 513 mln surplus. Coupled with a USD 1.65 bln wire from the IMF, the general balance surplus boosted gross international reserves to USD 12.6 bln, which is nearly 3.2 months of imports.

Concorde analyst Alexander Paraschiy added: “The August statistics are slightly better than we expected. Still, we do not see cause for further optimism. Imports were lower than projected primarily due to halted natural gas imports from Russia. At the same time, we observed a slowdown in non-energy imports decline -26.9% yoy in August compared to -36.8% yoy in July. We attribute that to the effect of the stabilized hryvnia.

“What’s more, the National Bank revised its previous CA estimate for 7M15 now instead of a surplus of USD 88 mln, the NBU has reported a USD 193 mln deficit for the period.................

To read further go to this link: ukrainebusiness.com.ua

One of the most influential investment bankers of the country, the owner of Concorde Capital Igor Mazepa sees stabilization and recovery of the Ukrainian economy. He said this in an interview with "Commander in Chief".

Speaking about the banking system, investment banker said that "the situation is close to the bottom." He predicts that will take a few dozen banks, "which are either engaged in fictitious transactions, or simply the number of banks." "The banking system is not performing any function of savings, no savings, no investment is not conducive to the growth of the economy, its only function - payments where banks earn some commission income. This is due to the fact that some time ago there was a "raid" on the banks - I mean the influx of investors, who wish to withdraw their deposits, "- said Mazeppa.

But the last three or four months he sees stabilization "hryvnia is stable, there is no devaluation, there is even a certain revaluation. Most good indicators - is larechnye quotes: hryvnia strengthened even there. "

"The budget is executed in the first half of the year the country has come out with a good budget surplus. The situation in the ATO is also in a sense, it has stabilized. And that leads to a revival in the business environment ", - said an investment banker.

According to him, the revival seen in many industries. "Talking to restaurateurs: they have the situation better than it was in the spring. We start some car sales. Do taxi drivers have more customers. The situation is similar in many other industries, "- said Mazeppa.

He predicts that "if it goes another six to eight months, but better - twelve, banks accurately to push off from the bottom." "There are good preconditions for this. NBU on the interbank market every week buys dollars, while the hryvnia even stronger. This suggests that the proposal of the dollar and the hryvnia balanced. National Bank has recently lowered the discount rate - this will entail a reduction in the rate of return on deposits of the National Bank and are prerequisites for the banks began lending to the economy and stimulate consumer demand through consumer credits ", - said an investment banker.

glavcom.ua In Russian

Some investors appear to have been impressed by the fact that Ukraine continues to dance between the raindrops and survive in spite of massive economic and fiscal problems. We learn more in Concorde Capital’s daily market comment:

Ukrainian stocks surged in trading on Thursday, Oct. 8. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stock advanced 3.5%, or 10.3% in three straight positive sessions. Its biggest component, grain trader and sunflower oil producer Kernel (KER PW), rose 1.8%, or 15.1% in three straight winning sessions, to its highest level in nearly two years. Dairy producer Milkiland (MLK PW) gained 23.8%, or 27.5% in two sessions. Farmer Industrial Milk (IMC PW) rose 11.5%, extending its hot streak to five sessions at a 29.1% gain. In London, iron ore miner and pellet maker Ferrexpo (FXPO LN), increased 0.7%. The volatile shares of egg producer Avangardco (AVGR LI) jumped 19.5%, or 59.7% in two sessions. JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN) surged 14.1%, extending its win streak to four sessions at a 31.1% advance. The Ukrainian Exchange (UX) Index of Kyiv-traded stocks improved 0.2%, led by bargain-buying for Alchevsk Steel (ALMK UK, +7.3%).

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

www.xe.com 2 minutes ago February 15, 2016.
Hryvnia for one dollar / one euro / one pound
Inverse:     26.8492     30.0138     38.8618

After recent falls from around 24 / dollar the hrvynia seems to have stabilized near 27. 26.8 today.
The euro - an easy conversion, now at 30.01.
And as for the pound, personally I now do quick calculations at 40. I used to do 35. But 40 hryvnia to a pound is nearer the mark now.

Bureau de change at the weekend.
I saw 26.5 / 26.9. But that rate will have changed now, I am sure.