Bookmark and share the address of UKRAINE ENGLISH NEWS on your social bookmarking website
Most users ever online was 229 on Sat Aug 08, 2015 11:03 pm
This was in an article for " Radio Liberty " writes political scientist, international journalist and writer Victor Kaspruk.
Until recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin pretended to be afraid of nothing. He did not confused public opinion because its in there. He shuns not the Russian people, for it is critically zazombovanyy television propaganda. But the danger comes from the Putin regime still silent mass that is able to evolve into the angry crowd. So Putin terribly afraid element angry crowd that can not be stopped by anything.
Of course, after strong protests on Bolotnaya Square, Putin did everything in order to like the Russian Federation will not happen again.
Now he lured "Fun opposition", he held a powerful cleansing in the army and the FSB, based on private army Kadyrov, allegedly because no rebel against him.
But the sanctions imposed on Russia after the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea and Moscow beginning of the war in Donbas, still working.
Although television is propaganda of the population replaces common sense, everything can change very rapidly when the Russians not to eat.
This will be the largest causative factor for the Russian people to abruptly stop loving his political idol - Putin.
Big fires start with a small fire. Similarly, the uprising against the government of Putin may begin locally in a peripheral region of the Russian Federation, and then rapidly spread to the whole of.
And then there is no National Guard Putin and his accomplices will not help.
Russian history says that almost all of Moscow's riots related to hunger.
So you can try to bring the original formula: the possibility of rebellion in Russia is inversely proportional to the amount of food available to the public.
Putin is afraid of "Pugachev" in also that after the popular uprising he will be responsible for all their actions.
Scenarios of collapse
However, if the elite use the last chance to save the final defeat of Russia, Putin removing, you can deploy multiple scenarios predict the collapse of the Russian Federation.
Scenario one: this time the popular protests will begin not in Moscow, but in the peripheral regions. Perhaps in Siberia. "Pugachev" will result in that first hungry people hromytyme shops, supermarkets, and then (went into a rage), and Putin's administration building. The government moves to temporary local uryaduvan who selected people. Proclaimed the formation of the Siberian republic with its capital in Novosibirsk.
Scenario two: seeing that the central Moscow government loses control levers regions, the Caucasus began to declare their secession from the Russian Federation. One after another declared their sovereignty of the Republic of Dagestan, Ingushetia Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Chechen Republic. President of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, on behalf of the Caucasian peoples, said the Confederation of Peoples of the Caucasus.
Scenario three: the Urals, the transition government by force from pro-Moscow minded bureaucracy to elected representatives of the insurgent people. Putin's regional nomenclature arrested, and the capital of the Ural republic declared the city of Yekaterinburg.
Scenario Four: Tatarstan declares independence from Moscow. Tatar republic immediately recognizes Turkey and establishes diplomatic relations with it. Kazan asks Ankara on investment and financial assistance and get them.
Scenario five: Far East declares its independence and proclaimed capital of the Far Eastern city of Vladivostok Republic. The first to recognize the sovereignty of the Kremlin's Far Eastern Republic Beijing and Tokyo. Relationships established diplomatic relations between the new republic and neighboring countries. Beijing provides the country billions Far investments and sends it to the millions of his "experts" for their development.
Scenario Six: in the European part of Russia regional balances are great violent confrontation between political and economic elites for distribution in their favor what is left of the once great state.
Scenario Seven: the beginning "parade of sovereignties" Putin and his team are trying by force brutally suppress the desire for independence of territories that once were part of. But what these processes actually began simultaneously across the former Russian Federation does not allow the central government in the Kremlin violent military means to curb people's riots.
From Russia - the Russian Confederation
But is there a chance in Moscow at least slow disintegration of Russia and avoid "Pugachev"? Yes, but on one condition. Russia has become the Confederation of Independent States.
In this case it was not just automatically change its name from the Russian Federation - the Russian Confederation, but also make rapid decentralization.
Putin today the tragic situation in the economy. If an analogy of times before the collapse of the Soviet Union, now Russia sometime in 1990.
One can already see the first signs of disaster. But still the vast majority of Russians still hope that this is only a temporary problem.
Restart World Order really is, but Russia in this process not only pole of power, but not even a subject.
Putin is fighting for the right to become a subject of the Russian Federation in this process. But its aggressive actions he lowered Russia's status below any decent level.
Meanwhile, a clear signal that Putin is afraid of uncontrolled elements "Pugachev" is that the parliamentary elections in Russia moved from December to September.
The Kremlin clearly fear that the fall of the economy of "posypletsya" and then not be able to draw fantastic figures "popular support" St. Petersburg authorities kleptocrats.
Putin made an unsuccessful attempt to bend in a world
The situation is extremely critical. For any organism, political, economic, or social functions only as long as it is capable of continuous self-renewal, self-purification and development.
While it adequately responds to signals outside world. And the competition - a natural incentive these processes.
In the absence of competition in any social or biological system loses incentive to continuous self-renewal and degraded.
Putin has ruled Russia for 17 years and is trying to implant a false world order rules of deception, fraud and political pressure.
The world really need a new world order. But on the basis of common sense and responsibility, not the circumstances of Putin, who made an unsuccessful attempt to bend under him the whole world.
Although somewhat paradoxical finding suggests that the fact that the West was not quite ready to call hybrid from Russia, contains not only negative component, but also positive.
This delayed reaction is an indicator of the internal perfection reached Western civilization on the previous historical stage.
Completed phase and the West must perebuduyetsya because it has no internal contradictions. But those who oppose him, woven with contradictions, which do not count.
West is strong, but Moscow does not circumvent existing law - always playing weaker.
ukr.obozrevatel.com In Ukrainian/український