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Russian analysts predict a sharp drop in the ruble on Monday

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Russian analysts predict a sharp drop in the ruble on Monday

Post by Admin on Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:32 pm

The Russian securities market and the foreign exchange market may react to the drop in US indices sharp decline. The biggest adjustment will the ruble and the RTS index, analysts and market participants interviewed "RBC".

"On Monday and Tuesday the mark of 70 rubles. the dollar and 80 rubles. the euro will be passed. Then in front of us can stand up 75 and 85 rubles. the dollar and euro, respectively, after which certain subsequent correction "- says the analyst" Opening Broker "Andrei Kochetkov.

The fall of the US stock market would lead to a drop in other equity markets and the strengthening of the dollar against other currencies, sure head of dealing center Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk: "Investors will come out of the stock and to shift funds into foreign currency, and the dollar is now perceived as the most reliable currency." The reaction to the fall could be seen as early as Friday, when the dollar broke the mark 69 rubles. per dollar, said Romanchuk. "At the opening of the stock exchange on Monday, we are waiting for a lot of volatility and growth of the dollar, possibly above 70 rubles. the dollar ", - he added. The ruble may somewhat support the statement made by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, that the exporters will increasingly sell the currency, says Romanchuk: "If they really start to more intensive sales, it can support." During a trip to the Kuril Islands, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that "in the near future there will be more foreign exchange sales by the exporting of our currency, which will also affect the quotes of the ruble." However, according to Kochetkov, if selling on the world markets will continue and is not limited to the US market fall Friday, the rate may reach the level of last December - 82 rubles. per dollar. Following the ruble depreciated dollar index RTS. According Kochetkova, it may fall by 5-6% to 730-720 points (Friday, August 21, the market closed at 762.38 points), the MICEX index may fall less dramatically - by about 1%, to 1650 points (at the close on Friday - 1663.31 points).

However, the interlocutors RBC believe that the US markets have now Russia is not too significant impact.

"As always, what is happening in the major stock markets affects all other platforms. No wonder they say that when America sneezes, the rest get cold, but in the Russian market has recently seen a new trend: the price of our assets are now much more tied to the price of a barrel of oil than on what is happening in the West, "- says senior portfolio manager Alexander Chernomorov GHP Group. If you fall in US markets will not cause panic and collapse in oil prices, the reaction of the Russian investors will be very moderate, he added.

"Over the past year and a half the western financial system has done everything to isolate us. Taking the dollar, we no longer can, and pay the debts gradually. Since the end of 2013, we have given $ 165 billion foreign debt. Crucial for us to play the price of oil, "- said Kochetkov, adding that external shocks have a psychological significance for Russian markets, rather than fundamental.

Our market is already isolated, it left many investors or reduce its presence, said the managing director of "BCS Broker" Oleg Chikhladze.

"Therefore, the sale will not be pretty. Most likely, on Monday will drop all global markets, but the reaction of the Russian securities market will be less significant. Do not be surprised even if the reaction will be reverse "- he says. The US stock market closed trading on Friday a serious fall. At the close on the New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones industrial average was down 3.13%, reaching a six-month low. This is a strong weakening of the index in 2011. The S & P 500 fell 3.19%. It fell below 2,000 points for the first time since February this year. NASDAQ Composite fell 3.10%. In addition, the VIX index Chicago Board Options Exchange, which measures investors' expectations regarding the volatility of the S & P 500 - the so-called fear index - for Friday jumped by 47%, and this week - nearly 120%. This is a record weekly increase in the indicator in terms of percentage (index in its current form was established in 2003) - this was not even during the global financial crisis.

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