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What do these events have changed for the Kiev and Moscow - this in an interview, "The Observer" said the Russian political scientist, doctor of historical sciences Elena Galkina.
- Why, in your opinion, Russia withdrew from the agreement on the International Criminal Court? What will be the consequences?
- Of course, this is due to the recent report of the ICC, in which Russia's actions towards Ukraine qualified as military intervention and recognizes the existence of a sufficient basis for the commencement of proceedings.
On the Russian side it is rather a step of despair, a kind of hysteria. The invasion of the Ukraine, Russia embarked on the path of transformation in North Korea. This transformation is gradual, though, I think that ultimately it will fail. Or, will the transfer of power in the course of intra-elite coup, or something even more serious, until the collapse of the country.
What will be the consequences - in general, it is clear. The world already has a president of the country in respect of which the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court. This Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. He virtually travel abroad. By the way, during the dictatorship of al-Bashir (1989) actually lost half of the country. It formed a new state - South Sudan.
If we talk about Vladimir Putin, for a person who is in power, who have committed crimes, it is one way. He can not retire. Even guarantee that it can be given to the transfer of power will not be absolute, as documented crime. Therefore, Putin kept to the last of his chair.
- What do you think about the recent UN General Assembly resolution on the Crimea? There is actually recognized Russia as aggressor. It is the victory of Ukraine? Or the value of resolution is still overrated?
- Of course, it is a great diplomatic victory for Ukraine. As well as the report of the ICC. This is the result of the tremendous work done by the Ukrainian authorities for the past 2 years. Ukraine has finally began to act consistently traced certain strategy, which aims, in my opinion, is the recognition of Russia the aggressor at the international level. And gradually made significant steps in this direction.
- I spoke with a number of diplomats on the subject. They believe that the hype surrounding this resolution somewhat exaggerated, and Ukraine for a long time could "drag" the resolution ...
- Could, of course.
- That is still evident shortcomings of the Ukrainian diplomacy?
- Yes, the first one and a half years after the beginning of the aggression marked deficiencies of the Ukrainian diplomacy. Young system, which was the first time in such a critical situation. But the Ukrainian diplomacy was to meet the challenges - not as fast as we would like, but it's something. For example, the requirement to establish a "roadmap" of the Minsk agreements, consistent actions aimed at the recognition of Russia's aggression and its war crimes at the international level within the specified strategy. Better late than never.
- You mentioned the "road map." Do you think it will still be created, and on whose terms?
- Frankly, I doubt that the current Russian leadership to agree to a "road map" for the benefit of Ukraine. It seems to me if in the US led by Hillary Clinton stood up, then the probability that tends to zero. But thanks to the election of Donald Trump for Ukraine appeared a window of opportunity, because the Republican Party has traditionally more decisively in international politics.
Yes, Trump has made controversial statements, but autocracy in the United States. It is necessary to take into account the identity of Trump, his unpredictability. The election campaign has proved it. Now it is clear that Clinton had to work with so-called Rust Belt - states which can give the victory. Trump realized this, and Clinton is not. If the Ukrainian political elite to find approaches to the forty-fifth president of the United States, you may find some interesting solution to the conflict in Donbas. If not, it will freeze the conflict. For a long time.
If the Ukrainian political elite to find approaches to the forty-fifth president of the United States, you may find some interesting solution to the conflict in Donbas
- But Bloomberg recently wrote that, most likely, after the inauguration of the US involvement in the Ukrainian issue will be significantly reduced, and possibly Trump tries to improve relations with Russia at the expense of Ukraine, due to the date of Donbass ...
- Pay attention to the program of the Republican Party, to the statements of the people of the Trump team, notably Rudolph Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, and other classic American "hawks". They say that US interests extend far beyond them. The GOP program clearly written, we are with the Russian people, but not with his leadership, we will contribute to the development of democracy in Russia, but we are opposed to the current system there, we will provide additional assistance to Ukraine. In fact, the Republican program is much more pro-Ukrainian than the Democratic program.
I do not see the biggest threats to Ukraine in connection with the victory of Trump. I see a threat to the Russian regime
I do not see the biggest threats to Ukraine in connection with the victory of Trump. I see a threat to the Russian regime. True, the Ukrainian elite, of course, done wrong, putting too much on a single candidate.
- By the way, the situation with Paul Manafort affect relations with Trump?
- It's not so much Manafort as to the general background. Almost all Ukrainian politicians openly supported Hillary Clinton. Incidentally, the Kiev establishment here was not alone. Remember the saying, Francois Hollande, German and British leadership ... Many countries are now the same problems as in Ukraine. But they can be solved. Either it will make the current Ukrainian authorities, or the United States will put other people.
- On Saakashvili?
- I am not sure…
- Well, he boasted of his friendship with Trump.
- The fact that Trump is a very famous person. Many people in the world are familiar with it, the only question is, whether familiar with them Trump if he remembers them, and is willing to cooperate with them there. Saakashvili, as far as I know, not such a good reputation in the United States. He there is a decent lobby, but there is a force in the American elite who are very critical of him. In Georgia, the United States gave him carte blanche. They closed their eyes to so many things of questionable character in the persecution of the opposition, on the illegal detentions, arrests ... But as a result, we can not say that Georgia has become such a success, especially after Kakha Bendukidze retired, and Saakashvili was left alone . All this led to mass protests. Going to meetings by half a million people in a small country. I would not say that this is an experience that will push the Republicans put it on Saakashvili.
Saakashvili in the US has a decent lobby, but there is a force in the American elite who are very critical of him
- You know, I absolutely agree with you that the GOP program is more pro-Ukrainian. Still, Trump can not be considered a classic, and a classic Republican politician. And we all remember how the classic Republicans opposed his nomination as a candidate. However, he overcame their resistance. Do not you think that during the presidential cadence there will be the same?
- There is a big war within the Republican Party over the formation of Trump's team. He has his own favorites, the party - his own. Let's see how the situation is resolved. More specifically talk about Trump course will only be possible when we will see the team formed.
The Kremlin regime, I think, shocked the American people a choice of no less than everyone else. All Russian propaganda before the elections focused on winning Clinton as the proof of the lack of democracy in the US. Now they do not know what to do and what to expect from the Trump. Putin copes well with tactical tasks, if the opponent is predictable. Barack Obama and the leaders of the European Union just like that. They clearly operate in a specific pattern, you might say, by the book. But what will make Trump - is not clear. Strategically, he can not break the line of the Republican Party, especially since his team - people system. But Trump is capable of unexpected moves. And with that, Putin and Russian diplomacy failed. If the enemy is resolute and unpredictable, the Russian elite has once lost. Now, such a person will stand at the head of States. It will be interesting.
Putin copes well with tactical tasks, if the opponent is predictable
- What, in your opinion, will happen in Syria? After the election, Trump said that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad - not the priority of the US main enemy - LIH, and to win it, we must cooperate with Russia.
- The overthrow of Assad America has never been a priority. If this were so, Assad's regime for a long time would be declared illegal by the Americans, and they would have recognized the Syrian National Council as the legitimate government.
The development of the situation in Syria is largely dependent on the success of the US and the Arab armies in Mosul, a look at how to take the offensive on the capital LIH Ar Raqqah. In fact, after taking Mosul and Al-Raqqa LIH it ceases to exist. This will be one of many terrorist groups with an extensive network, but the idea of LIH defeated.
After the capture of Mosul and Al-Raqqa LIH it ceases to exist. This will be one of many terrorist groups with an extensive network, but the idea of LIH defeated.
Speaking of Aleppo, not for nothing is happening so intense attack on the city. In Russia there are no allies. Iran is a pragmatic policy. He is interested in the preservation of the Alawites in power, but not Assad. They are quite satisfied with the analogue Alawite State 20-30-ies of the last century. Turkey supports the Syrian opposition, which is represented by the Muslim Brotherhood. Their ideology is very close. For the tomato supply in Russia Erdogan forgets about it.
- So Assad is doomed?
- Assad is doomed. The only question is how long it will last. Russia supports Assad is, unlike Iran, which simply need good relations with the Alawites. And for Russia - it is something irrational. In fact, if Assad was replaced, a lot of problems would simply disappear. This occured in 2012, probably would not be igil.
If we talk about Egypt, Russia delivered to Al-Sisi regime, because he - a secular dictator. An interesting point: Americans in Egypt has strategic interests, and they are given and provide an annual grant assistance. Alsisi began to establish relations with the Americans. Please note that it is - one of the first world leaders with whom Trump spoke after the election. Talk with Putin took place a few days later. Accordingly, if Egypt is to choose between Russia and the United States, the choice is obvious.
At the right anti-globalization (Alsisi Erdogan, Marine Le Pen, etc.), a new world leader. Putin temporarily occupied this chair because it was free. After winning Trump has a new boss. We can not exclude that there may be some unexpected moves that seem the beginning of the global alliance between Trump America and Putin's Russia. But in any case it will lead to a further weakening of the US and Russia strengthen because to compare the potential of these countries is impossible.
At the right anti-globalization (Alsisi Erdogan, Marine Le Pen, etc.), a new world leader. Putin temporarily occupied this chair because it was free.
- We now turn to Europe. Why prepare for Ukraine in the context of the upcoming elections in France, Germany, the Netherlands?
- It is clear that the elections will be key in France and Germany. Firstly, Ukraine does not need to put on any one leader. In Germany, I think, the situation favors Ukraine. The only candidate who was dangerous for Merkel, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, nominated for President. This is very good news, because it will not be chancellor. Perhaps, there will be some other serious opponent, but before the election is not much time.
Merkel's positions are now strong enough, despite the criticism. That she made Germany a leader in continental Europe. Watched sociology of Germans believe that their life is now good. The only problem is that they are concerned with regard to Merkel - migration. But, firstly, there is 50x50: many Germans still support Merkel's migration policy. Secondly, the theme itself is already leaving because Merkel acknowledged the error, the number of refugees is now regulated, Germany has agreed with Turkey, etc.
Merkel's positions are now strong enough, despite the criticism. That she made Germany a leader in continental Europe.
In addition, the main problem lies not in Syrian refugees and migrants from Africa. These flows are controlled. Syrian refugees same - it is mostly people with a good education, with knowledge of English, who quickly learn German and integrate. The problem - the nations that do not have a social and cultural level. Let's hope that Merkel will cope with this problem.
- I can not help but ask about the detention of the Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev. Still, he is one of the last prominent supporters of the liberal model of the economy in Russia...
- Sorry, there still is Elvira Nabiullina - the head of the Central Bank.
- Yes, as I said, Ulyukayev - one of the last. So what does this all happen?
- It was a blow to the liberal wing. Let's see who will take his place, but most likely it will be a technocrat. Just the same professional, such as the deputy head of the AP, Alexander Kiriyenko - "gray" people dependent on Putin personally. Either the Liberals will defend that seat, which is possible only in the event that they will fight if they will unite and defend Ulyukayev. It is necessary for their survival because they eat just one. First ate Dmitry Livanov - the ex-Minister of Education and Science now Ulyukayev. When this mechanism shall be satisfied - a very big question.
Of course, there is another reason for the arrest Ulyukayev. People waiting for the blood, because the Russian propaganda of all dogs in the failure of the let down on the socio-economic unit. Putin is not to blame for their presentation - he is engaged in foreign policy and defense capability of the country.
People waiting for the blood, because the Russian propaganda of all dogs in the failure of the let down on the socio-economic unit. Putin, in their view, is not to blame.
The third factor - there is a corporate conflict. The head of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin, asked to sell him, "Bashneft". Ulyukayev spoke strongly against. Then he changed his position to neutral, but it was only after Putin approved the purchase. Ulyukayev did not "change shoes" in the air and change the position of 180 degrees, he simply corrected it, but without enthusiasm. That he does not forgive. As well as not just a word about the "bottom" of the Russian economy and constant, more or less adequate to the rest of the background comments about her condition.
All this is happening against the background of the struggle with "Lukoil", against the background of attempts to subordinate it to the state. Whether it will turn out - much more interesting question than deprivation Ulyukayev positions actually influence decision-making. If it will, there will be a final concentration of the economy in the hands of a very small group of people, a further deterioration of the investment climate and Russia on a new slide "bottom".
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