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This report says. Center for European Policy Analysis, who prepared an expert on Eastern Europe and Russia, Edward Lucas, reports ZN.ua.
Given the fragmentation of northern Europe, such an operation would pass quickly and with almost no casualties. However, the role of NATO and the US in the security system in Europe would remain after this in the past.
It says that the aggressive behavior of Russia set a new military front in Europe along the borders of the Baltic states, Poland, and Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland.
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At first glance, these countries are quite successful and are able to protect themselves by joining forces. Their combined GDP of 2.3 trillion dollars. This is a third more than in Russia. Population - 70 million, which is much larger than, say, France. And the overall cost of the army were 33 billion dollars.
In addition, nine European countries have a better air force, navy, and special forces kibervoyska. However, this does not protect them from the aggression of Russia, as these countries did not united: some belong to NATO and the EU, and some are not.
Norway and Finland for decades maintained a military neutrality. But now consider the issue of NATO membership. However, even if they decide to take this step, the process of application and acceptance will take at least 18 months.
Meanwhile, Russia is behaving aggressively and threatening neighbors. The report also refers to the early teachings of Russia, which took place in December and caught NATO by surprise. And the document says about large-scale military maneuvers staged by Moscow in March. They have been involved 33 thousand soldiers. The exercise scenario involved the rapid occupation of the north of Norway, Aland Islands (Finland's Swedish-speaking area), as well as the Swedish island of Gotland and the Danish island of Bornholm. The capture of these territories would allow Russia to prevent NATO to send reinforcements to the Baltic countries, the right to sovereignty which is now in Moscow, "questioned."
The document says that the capture of a single country in the region would take a few hours. The report also mentions the numerous violations of the airspace, which occurred mostly over those territories, the occupation of which practiced the Russian military. Experts write that the Kremlin is unlikely to want to restore the alliance of the Warsaw Pact, as well as he does not need the Baltic States.
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However, the capture of these territories would bring Russia some political benefits. In particular, the inability to protect NATO allies in northern Europe and the Baltic states would put an end to the decisive role of the US in European security system. In addition, Moscow would be able to from a position of strength to negotiate with the West of a new world system of security in which she held a key role.
The conclusions of the experts advise to strengthen the non-nuclear NATO forces in Northern Europe and the Baltic States, to establish their military and political ties with the countries of Scandinavia and Poland, in case of need they can effectively defend together.
As reported by the "Observer", because of the frequent provocations storonі Russia Baltic States and Poland have asked NATO army to settle them.
obozrevatel.com: In Russian
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