Ukraine crisis. News in brief. Monday 05 October [Ukrainian sources]

MONDAY

Please scroll down to view news items added during the course of the day

News -
Basically quiet on the eastern front. One incident of shooting from the Russians.

Weather -
A party cloudy start. Hopefully the sun will break through. Should be warmish again today - low 20s. Very good for early October.

Observation -
Looked out of my window and saw 2 hot air balloons. Not the usual sight in a morning at 0700. I think they rose from Trukhanov Island, or somewhere around there. The flats around the Dnepr River in Kiev.

0736
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/10/5/7083650/
In the zone of an ATU during yesterday's day enemy followed peaceful agreements, and only once militants replied with automatic grenades.
At 10.45 the militants in 2 kilometers from Granite at the Mariupol direction replied with automatic grenades toward the boundary line.
Actual absence exprss Ukrainian positions, peaceful settlements militants allowed and наділі realize successfully work in the social and humanitarian spheres.
So, recently in the village Бердянське - Berdynsk - with the assistance of the groups of civil-military cooperation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine started work on restoration of water and repair of main roads.
But in the village Alekseevka Великоновосілківського district, Donetsk region, where one part forces ATU, officers of civil-military cooperation brought more than 5 tons of coal.
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Shooting near Granitna.
I wonder if the Russian military will help rebuild occupied Donbass? Don't hold your breath.

http://glavcom.ua/news/330094.html
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Shaun Walker's "DNR guys". Checkpoint. 2 dead.

07:34
http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/article/27288082.html
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42.
Apparently a lot of candidates called "Odessite", or "Mr Ods", or "Odinakava"...
Do we know anybody by that name? Dodgy character obviously!

08:14
http://gordonua.com/news/war/V-zone-ATO-podorvalsya-na-rastyazhke-boec-37-go-batalona-teroborony-100741.html
in the zone ATO 4 October died warrior 37-battalion territorial defense Roman Karas made. The reported on Facebook tutor 40-battalion territorial defense "Кривбасс" Nikolai Kolesnik.
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Stepped on a mine.

Ukraine will receive from the US counterbattery station through which the defense capability of the Ukrainian army will significantly increase. This statement was made head of the Ukrainian State Petro Poroshenko during an exclusive interview with three Ukrainian television channels, according to "24".

Poroshenko said that the decree on the transfer of weapons was signed by President Barack Obama. And he did it immediately after the talks with Putin last week in New York in the framework of the UN General Assembly.

"This is a defensive weapon. It counterbattery stations, which will allow Ukraine to increase the defense capacity of the army. And give additional funds to provide training equipment adopted Ukrainian military units, "- said Poroshenko.

newsdaily.com.ua In Russian

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/04/us-ukraine-crisis-poroshenko-idUSKCN0RY0ST20151004
"Putin promised to make every effort and to let us know no later than Tuesday that this decision (to cancel elections) will be taken," Poroshenko said in a televised interview.
The comments follow talks on Friday between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, who met to discuss the Ukraine peace process.
At the meeting French President Francois Hollande said it would take time to organize elections in eastern territories that respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process would run beyond its deadline, into next year.
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Putin is a serial liar. He said he would release Savchenko at the first Minsk meeting.
Elections in the occupied territories. .. ?! Joke.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/elections-cease-fire-dominate-ukraine-summit/536925.html
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Report on Friday's meeting in Paris. Rather later. Appeared last night. Nothing particularly new.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11911194/Russia-bombing-in-Syria-escalates-oil-price-war-with-Saudi.html
The decision by Moscow to start bombing targets in Syria will rattle crude prices, argues Andrew Critchlow
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To be honest, I have been shocked by how little the oil price has reacted to Putin's bombings in Syria.
But - maybe Putin is trying to provoke an American military reaction.
If that doesn't happen then - the price will probably stay where it is. 45.5 / 48.5 this morning for WTI/Brent.
If the military situation does blow up, then the oil price will rise.

In the third quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter, real GDP in Ukraine increased by 1%.

This was reported by the head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valeriy Gontareva.

"According to our estimates, real GDP in July-September this year compared to April-June increased by 1%," - said the official.

As previously reported by the "Observer", the NBU believe that the planned increase in regulated prices and tariffs and the early increase in wages and social benefits will not have a significant impact on inflation.

finance.obozrevatel.com In Russian

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2015/10/01/in-russias-careful-expansion-game-belarus-is-moscows-next-target/
Finally, Russia’s covert operation in Crimea last February demonstrated just how instrumental military bases on foreign soil can be when the Kremlin decides to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign neighboring state and annex foreign territories.
Russia sees Belarus through the same prism as Ukraine—a view of the world inherent only to Moscow: This is a former part of the empire that must be kept close and cannot bring forth surprises like domestic democracy, independent foreign policy and sound economic strategy...
Russia has proven in Ukraine that it is ready and willing to disregard fundamental international norms and plunge neighboring countries into chaos and misery, jeopardizing their mere existence and shattering regional and global security.
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All debateable. And Putin defacto has massive control already over Belarus.
Obviously the BSF in Crimea proved decisive in the occupation process by Putin.
And a large air-base could do the same in Belarus. Putin perhaps making sure nothing goes wrong there. No moves towards democracy, or Europe.
.

During the OSINT-Intelligence volunteers found photographs that recorded various military equipment so-called Lugansk housing occupation troops of Russia, located at the "Avtoagregat" in the small town of Krasnodon Luhansk region.

This is stated in the material Inform Napalm.

"The photos, published today (in the screenshots is written: Added today) probably made in the summer of 2015, it tells us the bright green grass and leaves on the trees," - say the volunteers.

As reported by the "Observer", previously aerorazvedka militia regiment of special purpose "Dnepr-1" opened the tank and artillery positions of the Russian-terrorist forces.

In particular, we are talking about positions in the Michurino, Novomarevke and Bogdanovka.

obozrevatel.com In Russian

Ukraine has launched the process of return of temporarily occupied territories: the Donbas process will be followed by similar steps in regards to Russia-occupied Crimea.
As reported by Censor.NET citing LIGABusinessInform, this was announced by President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in an interview to Ukrainian TV channels.

"There has been not a single shot in the Donbas over the past three days. This gives us hope for a very important thing: the following steps will be return of Ukraine to the Donbas. Without the cease-fire, it is not possible to give back sovereignty to the Donbas. It is not possible without elections held under Ukrainian legislation, without political settlement, troops withdrawal and so on," the president said.

Poroshenko also added that after Donbas return process has started, similar steps will follow in regards to the occupied Crimea.

"Crimea is the next stage of our activities," Poroshenko said.

censor.net.ua In Russian

"The second important topic we discussed is an absolutely firm and clear support… of the inadmissibility of holding "fake" elections on October 18 and November 1. We've achieved a joint position that, in accordance with the Minsk accords, the elections should be held exclusively under the Ukrainian legislation, the criteria for the election process must meet the OSCE criteria, international observers and the OSCE should ensure supervision over the electoral process. The elections can be considered valid only if they are recognized as free, fair and transparent and conducted under the Ukrainian legislation," Poroshenko told journalists after a meeting of the leaders of Ukraine, France, Germany and Russia in Paris on Friday.

interfax.com.ua

They don’t ring a bell when a market bottoms. But if Russia is not at least , one shudders to think of the sound it will make when it arrives. So Telenor, the Norwegian carrier, appears to have announced its intention to sell its one-third stake in VimpelCom at a bad time.

derives a third of its profit from Russia. Include markets firmly in Russia’s economic orbit (Ukraine, Kazakhstan and various others) and that proportion rises to one half. Sanctions and low oil prices are hitting demand and, more to the point, the rouble. Currency translation cost VimpelCom (which is US-listed and reports in dollars) 26 percentage points of sales growth in the first half...............

To read further go to this link: msn.com


Telenor ASA decided to give up on its Russian investment after 16 years, handing billionaire Mikhail Fridman a chance to consolidate his control of wireless carrier VimpelCom Ltd.

Other major investors would be less likely to take a risk with Russia’s third-biggest mobile-phone company as the country struggles with a recession, said analysts at Fondsfinans and Otkritie Capital. Russian tycoon Fridman’s investment firm is already the main owner of VimpelCom and has battled with Telenor for influence over the carrier.

The scarcity of potential buyers may limit the proceeds the Nordic region’s biggest phone company can expect to receive for its 33 percent stake, which is valued at about 20 billion kroner ($2.4 billion). Yet Telenor investors welcomed the news as the company is divesting an asset that it couldn’t fully control while reducing its exposure to Russia and Ukraine as well as a bribery probe VimpelCom is facing over its Uzbekistan operations.

“Everybody wants them to sell the stake so that’s neutral -- the problem is that there is technically only one buyer,” said Daniel Johansson, an analyst at Fondsfinans in Oslo. “There’s zero chance that it will be someone else completely unknown, like a Western investor.”

Telenor is free to sell the stake to anyone as a stockholder agreement with Fridman’s investment firm is no longer valid, said Glenn Mandelid, a spokesman for the Norwegian company. Telenor said Monday it will explore all options to sell the holding. Stuart Bruseth, a spokesman for Fridman’s investment firm L1 Technology, declined to comment.

Shares of Telenor advanced 2.8 percent to 159.6 kroner at 10:50 a.m. in Oslo. Shares of VimpelCom have dropped about 70 percent since the start of last year amid Russia’s economic slump and a plunge by the ruble, and closed at $4.05 in New York on Oct. 2.

Telenor bought about a third of VimpelCom in 1999 to expand beyond the Nordic region. The company has invested 15 billion kroner in VimpelCom and received about 20 billion kroner in dividends. It expects a non-cash impairment expense of about 7.5 billion kroner in the third quarter as a result of the stake sale.

Russian Control

Fridman’s L1 Technology, previously known as Altimo, is the largest shareholder in VimpelCom with about an 48 percent voting stake. L1 Managing Partner Alexey Reznikovich is the chairman of VimpelCom’s board.

What may limit other investors’ interest is the rocky history that Telenor had with VimpelCom’s Russian co-owners, said Alexander Vengranovich, an analyst at Otkritie in Moscow. Fridman and Telenor fought for influence over the company, and Russia’s anti-monopoly regulator took legal action in 2012 to stop Telenor from gaining control of the carrier, which owns assets deemed “strategic” by the Russian government.

Fridman “seems the most obvious buyer for Telenor’s stake," Vengranovich said. Selling the shares in the market is less likely as it would raise less money than a sale to a strategic investor, he said.............

To read further go to this link: bloomberg.com

This will be good for other Ukrainian owned telecommunication companies, as those customers will have to go elsewhere for their service, such as KyivStar, Life or others. Seems sanctions are hurting in many ways.

During the talks in Paris, Ukraine was pressed for adoption of a new law on special status of the Donbas, absolute amnesty for militants and elections, but Kyiv did not accept it.
This was stated by Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine Kostiantyn Yeliseiev, Censor.NET reports citing Interfax-Ukraine.

Read more: Withdrawal of foreign troops from Donbas must be carried out immediately, without reference to elections, Poroshenko says

"They urged us to adopt a new law on special status of the Donbas," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Monday, adding that adoption of a new law on absolute amnesty for militants as well as a new law on elections was also pressed for, but Kyiv denied the attempts.

censor.net.ua In Russian

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-in-syria-russian-fighter-enters-turkish-airspace/#10259
Adm. Vladimir Komoyedov, head of the State Duma Committee, said it is possible Russian volunteers who fought in the Donbass may be fighting with Syrian government forces, RBC.ru reported, citing Interfax.
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And the war against Ukraine? Finished?

By entering the war in Syria Russian president Putin risks to weaken his country’s defense, political expert Volodymyr Tsybulko told ZIK Oct. 5.

The assumption that Putin has outplayed the West in Syria is very questionable, he says.

“Putin has started the play but whether he will gain the final victory can be seen only when the way-out is clear. Putin, by contrast, has no way-out. He will be bogged down in the war deeper and deeper,” Tsybulko says.

The bombings won’t give Putin the victory he needs. He will have to use the land troops, something for which he has no money and resources. He, therefore, will have to bring them from Russia and weaken its defense, the expert believes.

Regarding the inflow of Syrian refugees, the expert says Europe takes annually some 300,000 from norther Africa, so the present flow won’t be a big shock for the EU. Meanwhile, the eventual effect will be positive as the refugees will join the EU economy, he says.

Ukraine cannot be sidelined in the light of the Syrian conflict. The sanctions must continue until Russia withdraws from the territories it seized.

Putin is desperate now to avoid any new sanctions that will fall if he fails to implement the Minsk agreements, the expert says.

zik.ua

"We were pushed towards adopting a new separate law on a special status of Donbas," he told a briefing conference in Kyiv on Monday, adding that they also talked about passing a new law on a full amnesty and a law on elections but Kyiv rejected these claims...............

To read further go to this link: interfax.com.ua

"They were trying to impose on us a rescheduling or postponing of temporal implementation of the so-called trade part of the association agreement, which, as you know, must come into effect from January 1, 2016. This won't happen, this idea has been rejected," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Monday.............

To read further go to this link: interfax.com.ua

US Congress may strengthen sanctions against Russia for its aggressive policy towards Ukraine and Syria.

This writes "The Wall Street Journal" in the publication "The Congress can answer Putin even greater penalties," reports "Ukrinform".

"Having approved new sanctions against Russia, the US lawmakers can send a strong signal to Moscow that the continuation of aggression against Ukraine and growing part in the genocidal war in Syria will make (the Russian Federation. - Ed.) To pay a high price," - the article says.

The publication notes that America imposed sanctions against Russia after the occupation of the Crimea were not effective enough to prevent aspiration of the Russian leader Vladimir Putin to continue to exert pressure. Now Russia is not simply withdraw its troops from the east of Ukraine, but also to build new military bases in the region, the newspaper said.

As a practical step, Congress could approve new sanctions, which would have an immediate and profound impact, for starters - in the refining industry of the Russian Federation.

The most vulnerable in this regard may be the refinery, according to authors of the publication. "At a time when Russia is one of the world's largest manufacturers in the energy market and its processing facilities are obsolete, with low quality products, no spare capacity, and the infrastructure is in desperate need for substantial investment" - the newspaper writes.

obozrevatel.com In Russian