Ukraine crisis. News in brief. Monday 01 February [Ukrainian sources]

MONDAY

Please scroll down to view news items added during the day

News -
Russian forces attack Ukrainians 53 times yesterday. Another increase.
Update - ATO HQ saying no dead or injured soldiers yesterday. Slava Ukraini.

Weather -
Near zero. Cloudy. Maybe a touch of sleet today.
Well above normal for this time of year.

Aidar Volunteer -
I had a long long chat with an Aidar Batallion volunteer in a cafe yesterday with some friends.
Very interesting. I'll try and write more during the next day or two.

7:11
http://kriminal.tv/news/v_samoprovozglashennoj_dnr_nachali_zakruchivat_gajki_mestnomu_naseleniju.html
===
More reports of kidnappings of people who simply go to Donetsk to visit relatives. Dangerous area now. 100% avoid. Just like Russia.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-plans-to-join-fight-against-isis-means-troops-could-come-up-against-russian-forces-in-syria-a6845336.html
...In terms of Russian language skills and combating Russian tactics, Ukrainians are world leaders. However, any troop deployment into Syria would be controversial in Kiev, and require a parliamentary vote, with some arguing that Ukraine needs to focus on the rebels who pose a continuing threat in its east, despite the current military deadlock. It might also prove controversial in Europe. ...
===
By somebody called Adam Nathan, in Kiev.
====
Update -
This story completely denied by the Ukrainian embassy in the UK, see
http://uk.mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/comments/4979-comment-on-fake-story
The information published at The Independent on Ukraine's "plans to deploy its troops in Syria” is false.
Also see about 20 posts' down.
Saying this story is pure Russian propaganda.

http://24tv.ua/italiyska_kompaniya_hoche_vidsuditi_v_gazpromu_759_milyoniv_yevro_n653815
...Saipem was working documentation design and build the first line of sea pipeline "South Stream", and build technological facilities in coastal areas. The total amount of work estimated at 2 billion euros.
After termination of the contract to the Italian company had to dismiss nearly 9,000 people - to save about 1.3 billion euros and remain competitive in the market....
===
What you get when you do business with the Russians.

7:39
http://www.5.ua/polityka/Sohodni-Poroshenko-z-robochym-vizytom-ide-do-Nimechchyny-105052.html
Meeting with Merkel.

http://www.unian.info/politics/1251202-samopomich-threatens-to-quit-rada-coalition-if-cabinet-remains-in-office.html
"The Samopomich faction has decided to express no-confidence in the incumbent government and we demand its resignation, including the resignation of the Prime Minister, who has failed to conduct reforms – this is obvious," she told Channel 112.
In her words, if this has not been done, Samopomich may withdraw its members from the coalition...
===
Liashko gone. Tymoshenko basically in opposition, but in the coalition. Samopomich on the way out. All playing into Putin's hands - destabilization.
Nobody is perfect. But these idiotic MPs need to get some work done for the good of the country, rather than simply thinking about their own wallets and popularity.

www.bloomberg.com/energy/
This morning  -
Crude Oil & Natural Gas
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME ET 2 DAY
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
USD/bbl. 32.83 -0.79 -2.35% MAR 16 01:40:08
Brent Crude (ICE)
USD/bbl. 35.18 -0.81 -2.25% APR 16 01:39:53

Frankly, the oil price controls Putin's imperial aggression far more effectively than any "sanctions".
After a rise over the past week - after rumours that Russia and Saudi Arabia might come to an agreement about production, prices seem to be falling back again a little today. In the 34 dollars a barrel price range. This should still make gas cheaper, once more, in the 2nd quarter of 2016, for Ukraine.

Weather chart from weatheronline.co.uk for Europe for Wednesday.



Winds coming in from the west, bringing warmer than average temperatures to all of Ukraine, I would suggest for another week.
Difficult to predict when the low pressure area, centred around the UK-Scandinavia, is going to move away. While it stays it pulls in relatively warm air across western Europe, and into Ukraine.
Here, from gismeteo.ua - normally reasonably reliable - a prediction for Kiev - Ukraine's largest city, and therefore the city with the largest heating bill - for the next 10 days or so. .. Remember, normal would be -8 at night, and -1 during the day. ...

2.02 −3 +6     3.02 +4 +7
4.02 0 +3     5.02 −2 +4
6.02  −2 +3     7.02 −1 +6
8.02 +1 +7     9.02 +2 +5
10.02 +1 +4     11.02 0 +5
And looking further west, at say Munich, temperatures are also well above normal, suggesting reduced gas consumption, and probably a fall of prices on the spot market.
Munich, early February is normally around -5 at night. But the BBC are predicting even night temperatures above zero for the next ten days. Warm.

From weatherspark.com average temperatures for Kiev for February. Note, with the predictions above, almost all the temperatures will fall in the top part of the chart - above the red line -



The daily average low (blue) and high (red) temperature with percentile bands (inner band from 25th to 75th percentile, outer band from 10th to 90th percentile).
Daily low temperatures range from -7°C to -4°C, falling below -16°C or exceeding 1°C only one day in ten.

http://en.censor.net.ua/news/371915/poroshenko_bloc_set_to_retain_yatseniuk_in_office_mp_lutsenko
"Why are we talking about Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk? Because otherwise, it would mean a re-election of the Verkhovna Rada and at least four months of irresponsible talks, abundance of populism," he said.
According to Lutsenko, it is imperative that 2016 be a year of political stability, investment, and development of the domestic economy. ...
====
Populism = Tymoshenko and Liashko. I agree with Lutsenko. Stability is needed. Putin is trying every way possible to destabilize Ukraine. And Tymoshenko will help him any way she can IF the price is right $$$$$$.

http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/371887/law_enforcement_officers_found_260000_in_car_heading_towards_occupied_territory_photos
press service of the State Border Guard Service.
"The cache was found under the rear seat. The owner of the vehicle is a 56-year-old resident of the Donetsk region....
====
I'm surprised the guy didn't buy off the Border Guards with say 20,000 dollars.
Also - strange - taking money into Donetsk rather than out of it.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/part-owner-of-telecom-disappears-220-million-hryvnia-gone-too-407058.html
===
A minister under Yanukovich. Apparenty has property in San Fran. Believed to be living now in the USA.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-russia-idUSKCN0V90XH
...Seehofer told ZDF television, adding it was primarily motivated by the good relations - especially in trade - between his rich state and Russia....
===
Former Chancellor Mr Adolf Hitler was also very popular in Bavaria. Meeting Putin for this German scumball is like meeting a fellow fascist.
Reminds me of this meeting - Nazi von Ribbentrop and murderer of millions, Joseph Stalin -



Here von Ribbentrop in uniform, furthest left, as you look at the photo. You might recognise somebody else also...



Here Hess stands between Ribbentrop and the former Chancellor of Germany

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/321319.html
===
Basically Yanair plans investment.
Actually a good location as a cheap alternative to Kiev.
Direct bus to Kiev would take about 70 minutes (say Zhitomirska metro). And the road is excellent. New.
There were plans about 2 years' ago and then... Putin started the war. Currently it is a wasteland.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2016/02/1/7097493/
"A man identified by Nadiia is Pavel Karpov. He is assistant to Surkov, previously worked in the Presidential Administration," ...
===
Another Russian criminal.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/321404.html
According to data from PJSC Ukrtransgaz, as of October 29, 2015 some 17.064 billion cubic meters of gas were stored in the UGS, while on January 30, 2016 gas reserves in the underground has storage facilities amounted to 11.165 billion cubic meters, which is 19.2% more than on January 30, 2015.
===
And given the current temperatures, well above average for the next week or more, I think no Russian gas is needed - maybe this year... !!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kadyrov-riles-russian-opposition-with-threatening-video/557901.html
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov published a video on his Instagram on Monday overlaid with sniper rifle scope and depicting Russian opposition leaders...
====
Incredibly primitive, contrary to all civilised norms, but such is the Russian "federation" under dictator Putin.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russians-hold-irreverent-rally-in-support-of-the-ruble/557883.html
In the city of Rostov-on-Don in the southern Rostov region, demonstrators held signs that read: “Je suis ruble,” “I demand finding those who ordered and carried out the murder of the ruble,” and “The ruble hasn't fallen, it has only slipped. On [a slab of] salo,” according to photos posted Saturday by local residents' group “Rostovnadonu” on Facebook.
Salo is a traditional dish of cured pork fat, popular in Russia and Ukraine. The “salo” in the demonstrators' sign alludes to the ruble's nosedive after the Kremlin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backed separatist insurgents in eastern Ukraine — incurring Western economic sanctions amid Russia's already struggling economy.
“Indecent behavior by the ruble: How low you have fallen!” another sign read. “Get up, it's time to catch up with Africa.”...
====
Found this video on youtube -
Жители Ростова-на-Дону провели акцию в поддержку рубля

17:50
http://delo.ua/ukraine/poroshenko-merkel-v-ukraine-nikto-ne-verit-chto-rossija-vypoln-311368/
..."Russia and the insurgents are not interested in peace and stability in the Donbass region. For Russia, the conflict in the Donbass - is a tool for the continuation of destabilization in Ukraine", - said Poroshenko...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/still-no-sustainable-cease-fire-between-russia-and-ukraine-says-merkel-1454344347
....“One has to say that unfortunately we still don’t have a sustainable cease-fire, which is naturally a prerequisite for the implementation of different points in the Minsk agreement,” Ms. Merkel said, standing next to Mr. Poroshenko in the Chancellery.
“We want to get industrial growth back in the Ukraine as quickly as possible,” she added, pointing to the IMF program, which has been trying to rein in the country’s debt and advising the government on its 2016 budget. Russia and Ukraine’s failure to stop the fighting, Ms. Merkel said, prevented any discussions about lifting economic sanctions against Russia....
====
Merkel saying that the ceasefire should come first.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11583126

" Russia's long-haul trucks are no longer allowed into Turkey, a Russian trucking union and lobby group said on Monday.

The Association of International Truckers said in a statement on its website that Turkey refused to renew an agreement allowing Russian truckers to bring goods into Turkey.

In response, Russia's transport ministry said it would cut back the number of Turkish trucks allowed into Russia to one quarter of the the current permitted number, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

In December in a separate incident, Moscow also decreased the number of Turkish trucks allowed to enter.

While Turkey initially benefited from a slight uptick in trade with Russia after the West introduced sanctions against Russia in 2014, relations between Ankara and Moscow soured after a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian bomber for allegedly violating Turkish airspace on Nov. 24.

In retaliation, Russia introduced a slew of economic sanctions against Turkey, an important trade partner. Ankara has not officially levied sanctions against Russia......................

====
More problems for Russia. Less money for Putin's imperial army.

18:51
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/politics/2016/02/160201_constitution_justice_sx
===
regarding "justice". Not the Donbass.

Ja-kamp Oekraïne-referendum loopt in op tegenstanders
http://www.volkskrant.nl/politiek/ja-kamp-oekraine-referendum-loopt-in-op-tegenstanders~a4235784/
Peiling: 44,5 procent stemt bij referendum nu voor associatieverdrag
De voorstanders van een ja-stem tijdens het Oekraïne-referendum lopen in op de tegenstanders. In december genoot het nee-kamp nog van een royale voorsprong van 62 procent tegenover 38 procent ja-stemmers. Maar deze maand is de voorsprong teruggelopen: 55,5 procent tegen 44,5 procent. De race lijkt dus spannender te worden dan tot dusver werd aangenomen...
===
Not binding for parliament, but would be an embarrassment, and more fuel for Putin's fire.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/russia-s-economy-faces-long-term-decline
...As grim as the numbers are, they may understate the increasingly dismal prospects for a country that only a few years ago was enjoying its greatest prosperity. Economists and business leaders, including some with strong Kremlin ties, are warning that Russia faces long-term stagnation and declining competitiveness....
This recession’s different, says Vladislav Inozemtsev, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “It’s not about oil or sanctions; it’s about structural weakness,” he says. There already were signs of malaise in 2012, when oil topped $100 and Western sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea were two years off.
The trigger for the downturn, Inozemtsev says, was Putin’s return to the presidency in May 2012. He raised taxes on business and real estate to finance military spending and expanded the reach of inefficient state-controlled companies such as oil giant Rosneft. “Businesspeople became disillusioned,” curbing investment in factories and equipment, Inozemtsev says.
===
see also
Russia’s economic problems move from the acute to the chronic
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21688932-russias-economic-problems-move-acute-chronic-phase-two
...To a foreign buyer, labour is now cheaper in Russia than in China. However, foreign investment is wilting too. FDI inflows, which were sliding before the crisis, fell from a quarterly peak of $40 billion in early 2013 to $3 billion in the second quarter of 2015....

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1699800.html
[Note - Russian source for this story]
On the Big Moscow River bridge demolished Memorial Nemtsov
01/30/2016 Tags: activists, Nemtsov
On Saturday night, Jan. 30, on the Big Bridge Moskovetskom employees GBU "Gormost" removed all the flowers, pictures and candles - the elements of the national memorial on the site of the assassination of politician Boris Nemtsov, said "Police-info".
That night, at about 03:00, on a bridge near the memorial to the police detained two activists - Paul and Oleg Kolesnikov Voroshilina. Police summoned from the neighboring ATS "China Town" because of the alleged fight on the bridge. Soon, both released without becoming drawn up.
In the video, released activist Love Sergeeva, detainees were told that the police allegedly called a witness who said that fighting people on the bridge. Kolesnikov and Voroshilina say that there was no hassles and this is the version they think invented.
During the time the activists were in the police department, the staff of "Gormost" removed the People's War Memorial.
The incident - the third in the past month. 14 and 20 January the flowers from the bridge was removed in exactly the same way: the police on duty at the memorial detained activists to immediately come employees' Gormost "and cleared the place of the murder, and then released activists.
Currently, the memorial has been restored. At 9 o'clock in the morning it looked like this:



====
Clearly an on-going battle between the Putin-Stalinist authorities and the people.

UPDATE 1-Russia's Gazprom expects output to rise slightly in 2016
... In 2015, Gazprom produced 418.5 billion cubic metres of natural gas, its data showed last weekend, which was an all-time low.
...Europe remains Gazprom's main source of revenue, generating more than 60 percent of its sales. But it faces a more difficult environment in Europe as Russian gas sales have become heavily politicised since Moscow's standoff with the West over Ukraine.
...Medvedev also downplayed an expected influx of liquefied natural gas to Europe from the United States, saying Gazprom's gas would be cheaper. ...

Savchenko recognized Surkov's aide as one of her abductors. PHOTO



censor.net.ua In Russian

Ukraine has requested the European Commission to launch investigation into the Nord Stream II pipeline construction.

This was stated by Prime Minister of Ukraine Arsenii Yatseniuk at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia Miroslav Lajčák, Censor.NET reports citing 112 Ukraine TV channel.

"Ukraine has filed a lawsuit regarding the Nord Stream II construction. We believe that the Nord Stream II is a politically motivated project. We call on the European Commission to start an investigation and stop this anti-Ukrainian, anti-European, anti-Slovak, anti-Polish project. We do not want let the Russians outwit us. We want to develop transparent European gas market. Therefore, we are sending a strong message to our European partners, the European community, stating that this project should not only be reviewed, but completely rejected," Yatseniuk said.

The Nord Stream II project includes construction of the third and fourth strings of the Baltic pipeline and its capacity increase up to 110 billion cubic meters per year. The Nord Stream II should start delivering gas to the Austrian city of Baumgarten. Launch of the Nord Stream II is part of Gazprom's plan to omit gas transit through Ukraine. Last year June, Gazprom, E.ON, Shell, and OMV signed a memorandum of intent stipulating construction of two streams of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline with total annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas to be delivered from the coast of the Russian Federation to the German coast through the Baltic Sea.

censor.net.ua In Russian

Friday’s trading brought generally good news for Ukrainian stocks as we learn in Concorde Capital’s daily market comment below:

Ukrainian equities drew some interest on Friday, January 29. The WIG Ukraine Index of Warsaw-traded stocks fell 2.0%, as investors were fixing their profits in sugar producer Astarta (AST PW, -6.8%) which gained 11.5% in two preceding sessions. The index’ biggest component, sunflower oil producer Kernel (KER PW), climbed 1.0% in its sixth consecutive positive session. In London, the most actively traded Ukrainian stock, iron ore miner Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) increased 2.9%. The Ukrainian Exchange (UX) Index of Kyiv-traded stocks rose 3.1%, brought up by positive performance from every stock in the index.

Ukrainian currency continued to weaken on Friday: the hryvnia lost 1.7% on interbank exchange to finish the week at its 11-month low of UAH 25.63/USD. Official rate of hryvnia also fell to 11-month low of UAH 25.55/USD.

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

Ukraine must show resolve in tackling “brutal” corruption by prosecuting high-level officials or face widespread disappointment at home and among foreign institutions, the head of its internationally-funded anti-graft ombudsman said.

Former Lithuanian Finance Minister Algirdas Semeta, whose role was created last year to give Ukraine’s firms a way to report bribery or other government wrongdoing, warned distrust about officials’ behavior was growing again in the country.

The Business Ombudsman Council has been set up for a two-year trial period at a cost of $3.5 million as part of the West’s efforts to root out graft pervading the economy.
But like most ombudsman it has no formal powers and relies on government departments like the economy ministry and new anti-corruption bureau to enforce any punishments, something Semeta said had proved insufficient so far.

“I have to say, most of the issues we deal with are very brutal violations of law and regulations,” Semeta told Reuters.

“So far progress (with convictions) is rather limited. I think 2016 will be a crucial year, it will demonstrate whether those institutions, which have been created with the assistance of the entire world, can really demonstrate practical results.”

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

Russian-occupied Crimea - Alexander Vitko, Russian Black Sea Fleet Admiral, said that more than 200 units of new military equipment, including over 40 warships and support vessels were relocated to Crimea in 2015, QHA news service reports

He also boasted of three “up-to-date” diesel-electric submarines (Warszawianka type), two small missile ships, ten fast attack crafts, twenty auxiliary ships and other floating crafts. Moreover, according to Vitko, Russia relocated to Crimea more than 30 aircraft, including the multi-purpose fighters Su-300CM, RIA-Novosti reports.

The commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was proud to announce that a full-fledged group of forces was deployed on the territory of the annexed peninsula. On this occasion, Vitko complained that before the annexation the Russian fleet in Crimea was able to relocate only one ship, because the Ukrainian authorities blocked the expansion of the military grouping.................

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

The Dutch government is taking a back-seat approach towards the referendum on the European Union association agreement with Ukraine.

“We are not going to hit the road with flags and bells [and whistles],” Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said in a press conference Friday (29 January).

He was asked when the Dutch government will start its campaign to defend the EU-Ukraine deal, which will be put to a vote in a non-binding referendum on 6 April.

UNIAN: The tower with the OSCE's stationary camera installed in the village of Shyrokyne to monitor violations of the Minsk agreements allows the militants to track the movement of Ukrainian soldiers, TSN journalist Andriy Tsaplienko wrote on Facebook.

"Our troops are in plain sight. The camera may even see their faces. But the electronic eye fails to record separatist tanks and mortars. It can't get to them – they are 3,500 meters away," Tsaplienko said.

The journalist believes that the information about the movement of Ukrainian armed forces is no secret to the Russian proxies, as the OSCE video signal is streamed to Kyiv, Mariupol and Donetsk.

"The main 'supervisor' of the reality show is right there. On the day of the solemn installation of the white tower, the OSCE SMM Principal Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug was asked whether he could guarantee that the militants would not get video from surveillance cameras, and his answer was negative," Tsaplienko said...............................

To read further go to this link:   uatoday.tv

This thread now continued for Tuesday at
https://ukraine-english-news.forumotion.com/t2190-news-in-brief-tuesday-02-february-ukrainian-sources

or go to
https://ukraine-english-news.forumotion.com/
and select Ukraine news

Reporting 56 attacks by Putin yesterday - a further increase.