Ukraine crisis. News in Brief. Wednesday 19 August [Ukrainian sources]

WEDNESDAY

Please scroll down to view news items added during the course of the day

News -
82 attacks by Putin. More small arms fire.
Strange. One day lots of artillery, lots of Grad. Lots of civilians dead. And then a switch. Why?
Update -
Lisenko reporting no military deaths yesterday. 3 injured. Basically - good news.

Weather -
Cool. Only 9 this morning. Quite a shock. High expected of 20. But it should be a little warmer again by the weekend.
The heatwave is over and forgotten.

The contraband trade -
I had a chat with a guy at Volnavacha. Remember the place where that bus was shelled by Putin.
The Border Guards controlling the checkpoint make 60,000 uah a day from allowing illegal contraband through.
The boss there has made one million in half a year - the length of the posting. It is big big money. See
Contraband - a million hryvnia trade at Volnovakha
https://ukraine-english-news.forumotion.com/t1041-contraband-a-million-hryvnia-trade-at-volnovakha-uen-exclusive

Footie -
Shakhtar, now of Lviv, play in Vienna tonight. First leg of Champions League game to see if they can qualify for the group stages.
50-50 chance - my opinion. Dynamo are already through as champions of Ukraine.

Oleg Sentsov -
trial coming to a conclusion probably in the next few days. Russian-Stalinist type trial in Rostov. Ukrainian film director.

http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/news/27196581.html
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And that means Putin. East - Putin controlled territory, and further east, the official border with Russia.

7:26
http://hyser.com.ua/politics/v-den-nezavisimosti-vstretyatsya-poroshenko-merkel-i-olland-14419
"After the completion of all activities related to the celebration of Independence Day of Ukraine, in the afternoon, the president will travel to Berlin for talks", - confirmed the visit to the agency "Interfax-Ukraine" on Tuesday night.
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It's a pity they couldn't have met in Kiev.
Could you imagine the French President flying off somewhere on Bastille Day? No.

7:48
http://society.puls.kiev.ua/incident/345224.html
[At least one death. Russian officers involved]

7:45
http://zaxid.net/news/showNews.do?situatsiya_na_donbasi_stabilizuvalasya__prestsentr_ato&objectId=1362448
Ukrainian military reported a significant decrease in the number of bombardments by the separatists, but added that "with the provocative aim of the militants used small arms."
The most tense, as before, the press center called ATU situation near Donetsk. Shelled positions at Opitnoe, Pisky and Krasnohorivtsi and late at night on August 18 under fire from rocket systems of volley fire "Grad" hit homes in Avdiyivka.
Activity militants was recorded in Lugansk, Mariupol and Artemivsk directions.
Generally during the period August 18 Ukrainian military counted 82 violations of the ceasefire.
===

Strange. 156 attacks with lots of artillery one day, and now 82, and lots of small arms fire. Snipers operating again?
Putin checking out the defences before a massive attack? Or simply giving his generals some practice at killing Ukrainians?

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/world/europe/russians-feel-rubles-fall-but-putin-remains-mostly-unscathed.html
...Russians are paying a third more for sunflower oil, a fifth more for yogurt and three-quarters more for carrots compared with a year ago, according to government statistics....
“They have no way out,” said Sergei Guriev, a professor of economics at Sciences Po in Paris. “Unless oil prices go up, they are really looking at a dead end.” ...
===
A good article - also from the NYT. A good read. Factual. Clear.

I went to the mall yesterday.
The hryvnia was at 22.60 / 23.10.
It has been hovering around 22 - 24 for several months now - fairly stable.
====

Oil price is also steady today.
This from www.bloomberg.com/energy/  1 minute ago

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
INDEX UNITS PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE CONTRACT TIME ET 2 DAY
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)
USD/bbl. 42.23 -0.39 -0.92% SEP 15 02:10:35
Brent Crude (ICE)
USD/bbl. 48.53 -0.28 -0.57%
====

The Russian ruble continues to fall
www.xe.com  1 minute ago
Inverse: 65.8946 72.9264 103.296
Rubles for one dollar    ... euro  ....    pound

I'm a little surprised that the Russian central bank haven't stepped in and brought the ruble back to 63 or 64.
Maybe they will try and do it slowly. Or maybe they simply don't have the funds now. Putin's reserve fund is disappearing quickly.

9:55
http://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/obse-provedet-spetsialnoe-zasedanie-eskalatsii-1439962354.html
===
Link currently doesn't work. But I read about this elsewhere also.
I just hope that the osce don't pull out. That will give Putin carte-blanche to smash his tanks all the way to Kiev.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/19/how-russia-hides-its-dead-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine.html
Is the conflict going to escalate for several years? “That all depends on Putin personally, and on his gray military advisers. This story is irrational, it is beyond any comprehension; for as long as military families do not protest, there will be enough cannon fodder to be sent to war,” Russia’s main Soldiers’ Mother told The Daily Beast.
[Nothing particularly new, to be honest]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/video/2015/aug/19/shakhtar-donetsk-ukraine-football-club-exile-video
Video report from the Guardian.



Not bad really. I described Shakhtar above as now being from Lviv, slightly tongue in cheek. They now play all their "home" games there.
Akhmetov gets a nice mention - friend of Yanukovich. He did nothing when the war started in Donbass. Sat on the fence, and thought about his money.
Initially when Yanukovich ran to Putin Akhmetov ran to London. But none of this is mentioned.
Report mostly in Russian and Portuguese. Marlos, incidentally has a rather soft Brazilian accent, much clearer to me than someone from say SP.

Alfred Kokh, the ex-vice premier of Russia, told Sobesednik Aug. 19 about Putin's plans for Ukraine.

"Putin would have willingly conquered Ukraine flouting the world if he had not realized in the summer of 2014 that he does not have the manpower and funds for the operation," Kokh says.

He stressed that the Ukrainian army shows much better training than before.

Putin's scenario for the summer of 2014 included the shooting down of a Russian passenger plane over Donbas to get the casus belli. The Russians delivered the Buk AA missile battery for the purpose, Kokh says.

The rebels, however, mistakenly targeted the Malaysian jet, not the Russian one which was flying over Donbas at the same time. This opinion is shared by many, Kokh remarks.

As the stand-off intensified, Putin realized that he has a well-motivated Ukrainian army. Putin believed that Donbas rebels would fight well, but he was mistaken, Alfred Kokh says.

zik.ua

Russian prosecutors have asked a court to send a Ukrainian filmmaker to prison for 23 years on charges of conspiracy to commit terrorist attacks.

Critics have dismissed the charges against Oleg Sentsov as retaliation for his pro-Ukrainian position in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Sentsov, a Crimean native, was a vocal opponent of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, which followed a hastily called referendum and the deployment of Russian military forces across the peninsula.

Sentsov and a co-defendant, Oleksandr Kolchenko, went on trial on July 21 in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don near the Ukrainian border.

Sentsov has been charged with organizing a terrorist group, planning terrorist attacks, and illegally acquiring explosives..............

rferl.org

The governor of Ukraine's Odessa region, former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, took part in police training exercises led by U.S. instructors in the Black Sea city on August 18. Saakashvili has played a highly public role since taking over as governor in May, mingling with locals and promising to make sweeping changes to stamp out corruption.



rferl.org

Ukraine’s industrial output dropped 13.4% yoy in July compared to an 18.1% yoy plunge in June, Concorde Capital informed clients in an online advisory today. The information, which came in a UkrStat report on Aug. 18 also reveal that in 7M15, industrial output decline slowed to 19.5% yoy, from a 21.5% drop in 6M15.

All key industrial sectors improved significantly in July except for machinery. In particular, mining declined 16.2% yoy in July (compared to 20.1% yoy in June), chemical production fell 16.5% yoy (-19.4% yoy), metal production declined 23.3% yoy (-27.1% yoy), and utilities shrunk 13.9% yoy (-15.5% yoy). The slump in the machinery sector deepened to 21.0% yoy in July compared to 16.7% yoy in the prior month.

The industrial output slump in the partially occupied regions of Ukraine also improved significantly. In particular, the industry of Luhansk region fell 59% yoy in July, compared to a drop of 78% yoy and 86% yoy in June and May. Output decline in Donetsk region slowed to 36% yoy in July, compared to 46-47% yoy decline in the prior two months.

Concorde analyst Alexander Paraschiy added: July’s statistics looks encouraging – the recovery in industrial output looks again better than we initially expected. For the reason, we upgrade our forecast for 2015 industrial production decline to 13.8%, from 14.6% yoy. The recent trend supports our vision that industry will show a single digit decline rates in the coming months, simply on a low comparative base. Recall, the industry started demonstrating solid decline in output starting August 2014 (when 21.4% yoy drop was recorded), due to escalation of warfare in Donbas.

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

"Sometimes, it looks like that the discussion on reform mostly comes to the rates of several taxes. Of course, the reduction of some of them, first of all the unified social tax, is an integral part of future reforms, and now we are considering options of decline that will significantly reduce the tax burden on wages," she said......

ukrinform.ua

The situation in eastern Ukraine remains tense. Despite the declared ceasefire, Russian-backed terrorists continue to fire at Ukrainian army positions and settlements in Donbas.

The map reflecting the situation in Donbas as of 12.00 on August 19 has been released by the information and analytical center of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.



ukrinform.ua

The leadership of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic terrorist organization (DPR) is preparing the referendum on "accessing the Russian Federation as its separate subject," a source close to the leadership of the republic told Ukrainian news Web portal OstroV on Wednesday.

According to the source, the referendum is expected to be held in two-four weeks after the "local elections," which are scheduled for October 18...................

unian.info

"Given the modern threats and priorities in the development of [border] sectors, design and preparation works has been completed, ie topographic and geodesic works have been finalized, engineering and fortification assignments have been elaborated, and agreements have been signed for all 35 sectors , "State Border Service first deputy head Vasyl Servatiuk said at a government meeting on Wednesday.

In his words, project documentation has been approved and construction permits have been issued for eleven facilities in Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions. Agreements have been signed with general contractors and sub-contractors.

"As of today, practical works are being done in the Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions consistent with the plan," said Servatiuk, adding that contractors were working on the border zone...........

interfax.com.ua

Pro-Russian television openly takes a lie about the events in Donbass.

The network has a video that is clearly confirmed reports Zik.ua.

"On the face of alarming journalists. Behind the scenes shots. At some point, the journalist gets off, and bursts out laughing. In the background, lights camera "grabs" the wall and painting with light. It turns out that "a journalist", probably not even close to the positions of "valiant" "LC" in the industrial zone as stated in the beginning, but somewhere in the alley. Shots - not real. Someone behind the scenes lupil something "- said in a statement.



glavnoe.ua

Vladimir Markin, official representative of Russia's Investigating Committee used undiplomatic language, speaking about Leonid Kravchuk in the aftermath of his interview to Novoje vremia Aug. 18 and calling him a petty thief, Apostrof reports.

In his interview Kravchuk predicted that the occupied Crimea will eventually become part of Ukraine.

L. Kravchuk also proposed to isolate the rebel-held territories politically and economically, letting Russia face the consequences of its merciless destruction of the territory.

zik.ua

NATO warned Russia that any attempt of militants to seize more Ukrainian territory is unacceptable, transfers "UNN" with reference to Reuters.

According to the statement of the alliance, in eastern Ukraine recorded a new wave of violence between militants and the Ukrainian military.

The report noted that NATO members discussed the situation and noted that the parties to the conflict must exercise restraint.

"Russia has a special responsibility for finding a political solution," - said the deputy NATO spokesman Carmen Romero.

Recall on August 14, the number of attacks by militants was a record for the past six months.

glavcom.ua In Russian

On Wednesday morning, gunmen opened fire from tanks and mortars peace building in Marinka and Pavlopole, the press center of the ATO on Facebook.

According to the press center, today, August 19, in the area of ​​the ATO, a decrease of activity of illegal armed groups. The enemy uses mainly small arms, provoking our soldiers to fire.

"Not far from Donetsk, at 2:35 of the" Grad "militants beat on our positions in the village Novobahmutovka. And about 6 am fired from a tank civilian houses in Marinka. In addition, about 5 am the occupants of the mortars fired Pavlopole peace building ", - said in a statement.

Also recorded Artem direction shelling out 122-mm mortar shells at the Ukrainian outpost in the village of Mayskoye.

However, without succumbing to the provocations of the enemy and strictly observing the Minsk agreement Ukrainian troops opened fire only in response to cases of direct threats to the lives of our soldiers.

glavcom.ua In Russian

Deputy Chairman of the ad hoc monitoring mission of the OSCE Alexander Hug said that the militants of the terrorist organization "DNI" threatened to kill the OSCE observers in the event of their return to the village of nameless Novoazovskiy Donetsk region.

He said this at a briefing in Donetsk.

"This morning, the nameless in the direction of the Sea of ​​Azov representative of the" DNR "threatened to kill our observers, if the next time will come again at the checkpoint" - said Hug.

He said that from the "LC" and "DNR" continue to sound contradictory requirements for instructors of the OSCE. According to him, on the one hand militants publicly criticized the mission that it does not send a sufficient number of patrols, and on the other - they are denied access to instructors to places for information and monitor the situation.

At the same time, he stated that the signal while flying unmanned missions again falls under the electronic jamming of using military equipment.

glavcom.ua In Russian

The World Bank has listed Ukraine $ 732 million for infrastructure projects and improving energy efficiency in the district heating sector of the country. This is stated in the message Ministry of Housing Ukraine.

"For the realization of the project" Development of urban infrastructure - 2 "spent $ 350 million (300 million at the expense of loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and $ 50 million at the expense of the Clean Technology Fund)", - the report says. The project should be implemented in the next 6 years - from 2014 to 2020.

The funds will be spent on reconstruction of networks with replacement with pre-insulated pipes, in the boiler and central heating units, construction of boilers to alternative fuels, installation of individual heating units and meters, as well as the manufacture of construction documents, technical supervision, provision of other advisory services.

Note, this project consists of several sub-projects in the field of water, wastewater and a pilot project on the treatment of municipal solid waste by 11 utilities in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Kramatorsk, Coloma, Ternopil, Cherkasy and Ivano-Frankivsk.

glavcom.ua In Russian

The pro-Russian Crimea occupied by criminal clans began to fight among themselves. This was in the air "Channel 5" said the first deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Paruby.

"In Crimea, started the conflicts between the pro-Russian criminal clans, which are beginning to fight among themselves," - said Paruby.

He was confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin in the course of this and tries to disavow what is happening, accusing the West of destabilization.

"Of course, Putin is the naked eye can see that the situation is close to the conflict to destabilize and therefore with the experience and the fear of talking about it. Only when he emphasizes that the external forces are destabilizing, I would like to answer one thing: the key fact of destabilization in the occupied territories is the occupying power ", - stressed Paruby.

glavcom.ua In Russian

NATO Allies expressed their serious concern about the recent sharp escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine.

Interfax-Ukraine informs citing press release posted on NATO website on results of the aforementioned meeting, Censor.NET reports.

The statement reads: "Today, NATO Allies discussed the situation in eastern Ukraine. Allies expressed their serious concern about the recent sharp escalation of violence….Russia has a special responsibility to find a political solution. Any attempt by the Russian-backed separatists to take over more of Ukraine's territory would be unacceptable to the international community."

In a course of the discussion the allies stressed the need for all parties to de-escalate tensions and exercise restraint.

"They underlined that the focus must be on pursuing a solution through diplomatic means. The full implementation of the Minsk agreements is the path to peace," NATO said.

According to the organization, OSCE monitors must be able to do their job safely and without restrictions.

"NATO stands firm in our support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Allies reaffirmed that an independent, sovereign and stable Ukraine, firmly committed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to security in the Euro-Atlantic area," the document reads.

NATO said it would continue to follow the situation very closely.

censor.net.ua In Russian