Ukraine crisis. News in brief. Sunday 18 October [Ukrainian sources]

SUNDAY

Please scroll down to view news items added during the course of the day.


NEWS:

There were no casualties yesterday. Two soldiers were injured.

Last reports has 14 deaths of of the capsized boat near Belgorod-Dnistrovsky (where my wife lives at currently).  It's on the southern area of the Odessa oblast.  A short video was posted yesterday where people onshore were trying to rescue a lifesaver raft that had passengers within, off the Zatoka shores.  Supposedly there weren't enough lifesavers to go around for all passengers.

Of course, Putin's rejecting the Dutch MH17 findings. Also talk that Moscow will attempt to overthrow Belarus.

WEATHER:

Overcast in Kyiv with +12c temperatures. In the south, it's +14c and mostly cloudy.

Survivors of the Ivolha boat accident, who were taken to the hospital, told some details of the tragedy.
Censor.NET reports citing Т SN.

"We turned over somehow. There was a big storm; we were returning to the port, and the boat just toppled over," one of the survivors said.

Read more: 14 people killed in Zatoka accident

Another man who managed to survive told that people tried to grab the overturned boat, but the waves washed them off. "We tried to climb up, but the waves washed us off the hull," he said.

As it was reported earlier, Ivolha pleasure boat sank in the Black Sea near the town of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi (Odesa region). There were 36 passengers on board; 14 of them died.

censor.net.ua In Russian

Four anti-tank grenade launchers, F-1, RGD-5 grenades with fuses, 270 rounds of 5.45 mm caliber were seized by militia near the village of Serhiivka in the Donetsk region.

Censor.NET reports citing the press service of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.

Arsenal was found in the basement of a ruined house in a local Horticultural Society. All confiscated ammunition were sent for examination. Investigation is going on.

Criminal proceedings has been opened (part 1 of the Criminal Code, paragraph 263 - an illegal possession of a weapon, ammunition or explosives). The criminals are faced from three to seven years of imprisonment.







[url=] In Russian[/url]

The so-called 'Fuel and Energy Minister' of 'DPR' Dmytro Liamin was beaten by the members of the so-called 'Ministry of State Security' of 'DPR' during arrest.
The video of the beating was published on one of the militants' sources, Censor.NET reports citing Ukrainska Pravda.

The terrorist's 'Minister' was arrested by armed men. There were 'green men' watching at his house. Judging by the video, Liamin was beaten during detention. There are traces of blood on the floor. His face is smashed and he is covered with bruises.



Liamin with his hands behind his head listened to the decision to conduct a search of the premises, according to the materials of the 'criminal proceeding' brought against him.

censor.net.ua In Russian

The Dutch report into the downing of MH17 was not designed to apportion blame for the shooting, but Russia seems to be going out of its way to say it wasn't its missile. Fiona Clark looks at some of the reasons why.

They say the first casualty of war is the truth, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is no exception. It's not just a war on the ground but a vicious propaganda war waged by both sides in the mainstream press and social media. But the release of the Dutch reportinto the downing of a Malaysia Airlines flight in Ukrainian airspace has sparked fresh vitriol from Russia aimed at discrediting the report.

There seems to be a clear misunderstanding of the purpose of the report, which was intended to say what happened to the plane, not who did it. That will be the subject of a different report due out later. But this point seems to be lost on Russian media, which claim that the report's failure to pinpoint who pushed the button and from exactly where (other than a few hundred square miles of rebel-held territory) means, as one opinion piece on Russia Today states, that there's "no smoking gun."

But even though media may report that that's the case, one party that is especially at pains to disagree with the report's findings is Almaz-Antey, the producer of the missile that the Dutch Safety Board says shot the plane down. The company has conducted its own tests that allegedly prove that its warhead was not involved in the tragedy, which ended the lives of 298 people on July 17, 2014.

According to the Dutch report a Buk missile system carrying a 9N314M missile detonated about a meter (3 feet) from the cockpit, tearing through the plane's shell and causing the front section to separate from the rest of the plane. Various shapes of shrapnel were found in the wreckage and the victims' bodies, including bow-tie-shaped pieces, which the report claims are consistent with that type of warhead.

Almaz-Antey disagrees, as do most Russian officials, who have labeled the report biased and claim that it delivered a preconceived result. Almaz-Antey instead claims the bow-tie-shaped shrapnel comes from an older warhead - a 9M314 - that was decommissioned in Russia back in 1982, but was, it says, still in use in Ukraine until 2005.

Does it really matter which Buk missile was used to shoot down MH17? Why is Almaz-Antey so keen to show it wasn't a current model? By way of background, Almaz-Antey is a Kremlin-controlled arms manufacturer. It was set up in 2002 by presidential decree to combine various elements of the military industrial complex and now includes more than 60 branches and employs around 94,000 people. It is the world's 12th largest defense contractor and in 2013 it earned more than $8.3 billion in arms sales.

But, with Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent activities in eastern Ukraine, Almaz-Antey was placed on the sanctions list by Europe and the US, and as a result this monolith has gone from printing hard currency to hemorrhaging it. That's not good for a struggling Russian budget. So apart from Russia saying "we didn't do it," there's clearly pressure to ensure that Almaz-Antey looks squeaky clean so it can argue for an end to the sanctions against it.

Legal ramifications

Apart from looking clean, there are legal ramifications for the involvement of a current Russian warhead. Could Russia in some way be held culpable for the downing of the plane, if it is found that it supplied the arms or somehow allowed access to them, and therefore face legal proceedings against it?

Bill Bowring, a barrister who is taking Marina Litvinenko's caseto the European Court of Human Rights, can see a parallel between the case of her husband's poisoning by polonium and that of the warheads in question. In the case of the 2006 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, the polonium could only have been obtained with Kremlin consent, and it's the same with the newer warhead. "The victims could argue there's complicity, in that the state allowed the troops access to the missiles," he says.

Konstanina Tzouvala, a lecturer in law and global justice at Durham University in the UK, says there are other possibilities too.

"Russia is denying that it is supplying the pro-Russia rebels with weapons, which is very important for international law," Tzouvala says. She adds that it would be very hard to prove under current international law that Russia had "effective control" over the rebels, which "is taken to mean that Russia told the rebels what to do in detail: 'Go to place X and shoot the plane.'

"If Ukraine and the Netherlands manage to show that Russia is arming the rebels, this would constitute a violation of international law in its own right. Arming rebels, in itself, constitutes a violation of the rule of nonintervention in the domestic affairs of another state and is a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty. Thus, even if Russia was not found responsible for the act of shooting down itself, arming the rebels as such would still be a violation of international law."

Tzouvala says there's only a slim chance that such a case would be brought, but that it's "an important argument in the political arena."...................

To read further go to this link: time-ua.com

Recent events suggest that many people have misjudged Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. He is and will continue to be a dedicated Communist but he is also proving to be a much stronger national patriot than most would have expected. He made the decision to turn down the Russian air base that Vladimir Putin wants so badly and he did so knowing that it could cost him his position and possibly his life. We can only hope that the leadership of his non-Russian neighbors and the rest of the world will understand and respond appropriately.

Alexander Lukashenko’s turn to the West reflected in his expressed refusal to accept a Russian airbase on his territory and reports that the EU will be lifting some sanctions against him has infuriated Moscow and prompted the Russian authorities to make plans to overthrow him, according to Yury Tsarik.

Tsarik, a Belarusian analyst at the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Research, tells NR2 journalist Kseniya Kirillova that Lukashenko’s shift is strategic rather than tactical and that Moscow understands it as such (nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Rossiya-gotovitsya-svergat-Lukashenko-ekspert-108036.html).

Lukashenko is convinced, the analyst continues, that allowing a Russian base on the territory of Belarus would undercut “all the achievements of Belarusian foreign policy over at least the last two years,” including its role in the Minsk Process, the normalization of ties with the West, and “of course, a strategic partnership with China.”

“All three of these directions are currently developing in dynamic fashion,” Tsarik says, “and along with the preservation of allied relations with Russia from the basis of Belarusian foreign policy.”

The analyst adds that one of the most important parts of Lukashenko’s October 6 declaration about his opposition to a Russian base was his warning to Belarusians that there may be “various kinds of provocations from any side.” What this means, Tsarik says, “is that Minsk expects and is preparing for harsh actions above all from Russia.”

Had Lukashenko agreed to the base, the Belarusian opposition would have taken to the streets. “In part,” these would reflect real feelings; “in part,” they would be “controlled by Russia under the cover of which would act professional provocateurs and militants.”

But now that the Belarusian president has rejected Moscow’s demand, “the threat [of violent protests] has not passed,” Tsarik says. Instead, they may have intensified because “all of Russia’s actions will one way or another be directed at the overthrow of the current [Belarusian] president.”.........

ukrainebusiness.com.ua

Russia has always been a reliable gas supplier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a special interview, ahead of the Ukrainian-German Business Forum to be held on October 23 in Berlin, answering the question whether she sees a threat to Germany in the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine.

"No, right now I do not see such a threat. We are very pleased that the winter package is almost agreed in terms of providing Ukraine with natural gas. Germany also has other sources of supply. Although in general, Russia had always proved to be a reliable supplier of natural gas. We are also partially trying to diversify our own dependence - through southern gas pipelines, which transport, inter alia, the Azerbaijani gas. But in general we have confidence in Russia in terms of Russian gas supplies," Angela Merkel said.......

economics.unian.ua In Ukrainian

Militants have been provoking the Ukrainian troops in Donbas on October 17, according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation.

Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded as a result of militants opening fire from small arms on Ukrainian positions near the villages of Pisky and Shyrokine on October 17, according to Colonel Oleksandr Motuzianyk, President's envoy for ATO issues who spoke at a briefing on Sunday.

Oleksandr Motuzianyk also said the Ukrainian border guards have recorded two enemy drones along the line of contact. Two border guards noticed the enemy's UAV on the administrative border between Kherson region and temporarily occupied territory of Crimea.

Motuzyanik also noted that the combined military-law enforcement mobile groups detained two vehicles with illegal cargo at a Zaitseve checkpoint and another four vehicles with contraband near Alexandropol and Novotroitske in Donetsk region.

"At the same time, the Ukrainian military ensured passage through Novotroitske checkpoints of seven truckloads with humanitarian aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross," said Colonel Motuzianyk.

The Ukrainian military have been fortifying their positions, preparing equipment and weapons for the winter. Landmine clearance experts have not stopped their work. "Over the past week alone, they have cleared more than 100 mines and explosive objects that were planted in civilian facilities," reads the statement of the ATO press center................

To read further go to this link: unian.info

unian.ua In Ukrainian

Ukraine has become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. The Netherlands released a report on the causes of an MH17 crash in the skies over the Donbas. Russian officials flaunt their unwillingness to fulfill the Minsk agreements.

Ukraine has expectedly scaled the heights of diplomacy becoming a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. For the next two years the country will be able to actively articulate its position in the United Nations. Russia has not been fighting against Ukraine’s promotion (as it was actually uncontested in the regional group), but for decreasing the number of countries ready to support Ukraine. This idea failed, and now the Ukrainian delegation will have to go on an offensive. It is possible that Ukraine’s permanent representative to the UN will be changed.

The Ukrainian diplomats definitely face a lot more work on the international arena. The report released by the Dutch Safety Board on the causes of an MH17 crash has hardly left anyone doubting that the murderers of 298 passengers and crew members on board were those who had deployed Buk missile launcher in Donbas – although the report didn’t directly name the responsible individuals. I believe that the findings would not look so unambiguous, had Russia not tried its best to cover them with “information smoke curtain.” Excessive zeal of the Russians led to Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders saying Russia deliberately tried to confuse the world about the circumstances of the tragedy. So the Netherlands’ refusal from setting up an international tribunal with the UN involvement only means the country is aware of the real state of things.................

To read further go to this link: unian.inf

unian.net In Ukrainian

Merkel also praised Ukraine's efforts to rebuild the economy, despite the challenges the country currently faces.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel: "Now the (Ukrainian) economy will have to be renewed. This shall take place considering the illegal annexation of Crimea and the persistently unstable situation in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, occupied by separatists with help of Russia, which inflicts many problems on Ukraine. Of course, all of this makes the economic situation very complicated"...............

To read further go to this link: uatoday.tv

Prime Minister Yatsenyuk announced the four conditions for the elections in the occupied territories of Donbass.

"It is necessary to hold elections, and for this you need to adopt a separate law. But there is a very clear conditions," - he said in the weekly program "10 minutes with Prime Minister" on the Ukrainian TV channels.

The first - the implementation of the agreements Minsk. He also pointed out that half a million internally displaced persons registered in Ukraine, should be entitled to participate in this electoral process "and choose those who will represent the local authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk." The third condition, according to him, is a clear correspondence Ukrainian election legislation.

"Fourth - we must ensure that political competition in Donetsk and Lugansk, both through access to the media in these areas, and through the right of all political parties in Ukraine to take part in these elections, and to send their candidates," - he said.

Kvaziobrazovaniya - "Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic" - 6 October announced the postponement of the local elections in 2016 on condition that the Ukrainian political points "Minsk-2". In particular, the statement noted, Ukraine is obliged to grant special status to the Donbas, avoid prosecution and punishment of participants in the events in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as the re-vote for amendments to the constitution of the new, harmonized with the DNI and LC edition.

According to the decree, the elections will be the DNI April 20 and LC - February 21, 2016.

glavcom.ua In Russian

In the village and the village Frunze Partisan Kherson region on the night of 13 October 14, knocked two of the monument to Vladimir Lenin.

This is the website apostrophe with reference to the press service of the "Right Sector".

"The fall occurred under mysterious circumstances, but most local residents to these shares are unknown patriots positively", - noted in the SS.



glavcom.ua In Russian

On the purpose of the intervention of Vladimir Putin to the Syrian war, the balance of power in the region and how the Air Force of the Russian Federation killing civilians in an interview with "apostrophe" said Osama Abu Saeed - Speaker of the Free Army of Syria (SAS), one of the largest rebel groups fighting against Bashar Assad.

- Tell us about the consequences of Russia's intervention in the war in Syria. How did it affect LIH, the rebels and the army of President Bashar al-Assad?

- LIH was first advanced in the northern province of Aleppo (Aleppo - Syria's largest city and center of the same administrative unit governorates - "apostrophe"), and the air force Assad has long fired the areas that were controlled by rebels fighting the LIH. It turns out that the air strikes were LIH kind of cover. Now, because of the Russian air raids and strikes against rebel forces LIH had the opportunity to attack the CAC; However, as stated by the British The Guardian, the Islamists would use their advantage in the northern part of the province, and without Russian attacks.

Air raids Russian fighter now also cover the forces of Assad and Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese mercenaries who are trying to move forward in the provinces of Hama and Latakia bordering territories, where the president's position has always been very strong. But so far, all attempts to Assad's troops to take control of new areas led to significant losses - the president's army has lost more than 40 tanks and lost three helicopters. It was only on October 15, Assad's forces were able to retake territory in Homs (the city where the battles took place a few years of the presidential forces and the rebels - "apostrophe"). All this clearly indicates that Russian intervention is aimed at supporting the president in his fight with the rebels, aid in the recovery of those regions, which he lost. And nothing to do with the war on LIH (as claimed by Moscow - "apostrophe") all this has.

The Russians say they were entitled to a direct intervention in Syria after a request from the Syrian government, which means that it is legal, because it corresponds to all norms of international law. In fact, this is not the case, since the Assad government is no longer recognized by the League of Arab States, so it denies the legitimacy of the decision of the Syrian Cabinet. Therefore, treatment of Assad to the Russians, in which he calls for military intervention can not be justified under international law, and if the Russian government is really concerned about the existence of such rules and the legitimacy of his actions, he is in the first place would be worth to put the question the legality (actions of the Russian Federation, - "apostrophe") in Ukraine. This means Russia should in the first instance to allow an independent investigation of the crash "Malaysian Airlines", which was shot down (in 2014 in the Donbass - "apostrophe") separatists, cover it Russia.

- How, in your opinion, will influence whether the success or failure of Putin in Syria Ukrainian crisis?

- Russia is trying to achieve success in Syria, to get a trump to defend their interests in the EU, the US and the international community in matters of the Ukrainian crisis, because she has gone through in the east of the country such confusion. In Syria, the CAC and the rebels agreed to meet Russian aggression face to face and fight to the end................................

To read further go to this link: apostrophe.com.ua

apostrophe.com.ua In Russian

The result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and Syria may be the growth of terrorism in the country, as well as the struggle of the former "volunteers" for the business, which ultimately makes the civil war in Russia all the more likely.

This writes the "Radio Liberty".

"Putin is in danger of increasing terrorism in the middle of Russia. But on another hand, it gives Putin an opportunity to increase control over the North Caucasus, and to present themselves to the Russian public as a strong leader who is fighting against terrorism. That is the fight against terrorism has given Putin's support of the population", - notes Research Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Anna Borshevskaya.

At the same time, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Denis Sokolov believes that the tension within Russia will continue to grow with the fall of the economy, reduction of budget financing, and as a result it will lead to the growth of the informal economy.

"And with the growth of the informal economy will grow and the role of the power business. And this is an area in which those who returned from Syria, as well as former fighters," militia "and volunteers from the Donbass, will join in the fight for the same resources. One gets a very dangerous situation, when any top division can lead to unlimited civil war, "- said Sokolov.

apostrophe.com.ua In Russian