Ukraine crisis. News in brief. Thursday 24 December. [Ukrainian sources]

THURSDAY - "Polish" Christmas Eve

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News -
51 attacks on Ukraine from the Russian forces last night.
Update - no Ukrainian dead or injured.

Weather -
+6 last night. That is warm. Normal would be -4. Should be sunny today. +8 maybe.

Most people I know refer to the Catholic Christmas, or Western Christmas, here as "Polish Christmas".
The catholic church where I am will have a midnight mass. A lot of people in western Ukraine have Polish relatives.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/12/24/7093552/
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And we all know what Putin's "humanitarian" aid is, by now.

7:10
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/12/24/7093556/
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Good news. Hopefully there will be more business forthcoming with free trade now in the EU.


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http://news.liga.net/news/politics/8010375-gibridnaya_armiya_rf_narashchivaet_ognevuyu_aktivnost_51_obstrel.htm
12/24/2015 07: 14
The enemy is actively using small arms, rocket-propelled grenades and automatic heavy machine heavy machine guns
During the past days in the Donbass recorded 51 fact the use of weapons by militants hybrid Russian army. It is reported by the press center of the ATO.

http://www.unian.info/war/1220937-creeping-russian-occupation-osce-reports-no-access-to-kominternove.html
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine reports it has no access to the village of Kominternove, which belonged to the so-called grey zone, being located 23 km from the Ukrainian-controlled strategic port city of Mariupol in Donetsk region, and which was reported to have been occupied by militants from the Donetsk People's Republic ("DPR") terrorist organization on Tuesday.
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Clearly Putin has now decided to completely throw the Minsk agreement into the waste-basket.

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http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-faces-catastrophe-imf-backed-budget-not-passed-201125149.html
....But Ukraine's increasingly splintered parliament has already blocked the implementation of some 2016 budget amendments that could make the former Soviet state's finances more transparent and loosen the state's hold on its biggest industrial companies....
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1.7 billion usd loan delayed by IMF currently.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/social-well-being-indexes-of-russians-fall-because-of-economic-crisis--poll/553669.html
The social well-being indexes of Russians fell in December to reach a several-year low amid the economic crisis and complicated political situation, the state-run pollster VTsIOM reported Wednesday....
The welfare self-estimate index fell 10 points compared with November's and reached the low levels of 2009. Meanwhile, 24 percent of Russians estimate their financial situation as “bad.”..
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No wonder the Duma passed a law allowing the military to shoot into crowds. They are worried about protests.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/shortcuts/2015/dec/20/melting-ice-rinks-and-giant-sprouts-is-warm-weather-ruining-winter-this-year
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I mentioned the amazingly warm weather here in Ukraine at the moment.
This article, about the warm December in the UK.
And this in the Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12057600/UK-weather-Christmas-storms-to-disrupt-travel-for-millions-live.html
In Chivenor, Devon, the overnight temperatures fell to just 57,6F (14.2C) on Friday night, beating the previous highest low temperature for December of 55.2F (12.9C), recorded in 1998. Gravesend in Kent had the highest daytime temperature yesterday at 62.7F (17.1C), warmer than Athens at 59F (15C) and Lisbon at 60.8F (16C).
This in the US
New York warm winter weather sets record
http://news.yahoo.com/york-warm-winter-weather-sets-record-201947362.html
From Dec 13th. I know many ski resorts in NY state are still not open. this from Dec 22
Unseasonably warm temperatures block Muscovites winter fun, spark dark humor
http://neurope.eu/wires/unseasonably-warm-temperatures-block-muscovites-winter-fun-spark-dark-humor/
Warm almost everywhere. Good for Ukrainian gas consumption.

http://www.unian.info/economics/1221009-compromise-tax-code-changes-to-be-voted-by-parliament.html
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Lots of fiddling around, as far as I can see, but a move in the right direction.
What is really needed is a massive increase in taxation on alcohol and cigarettes, but the deputies simply wouldn't do this. Populism.
Tobacco and alcohol addition are terrible health and social problems in Ukraine.

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http://en.censor.net.ua/news/366492/russian_energy_sector_comes_to_standstill_following_us_and_eu_sanctions_tightening_the_washington_post
At the end of the Soviet era, Gazprom sold about 130 billion cubic meters of gas to Ukraine, then one of the least energy efficient countries in the world. This year, after slashing the size of energy subsidies, Ukraine will use about 35 billion cubic meters and produce 20 billion of that itself, Aslund estimates. Ukraine can buy two-thirds of its import needs from Europe, leaving it much less vulnerable to political pressure from Moscow.
WP article -

Russian energy sector struggles as U.S. and Europe tighten sanctions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/22/russian-energy-sector-struggles-as-u-s-and-europe-tighten-sanctions/

The sanctions have coincided with a plunge in oil and gas prices that have hurt the Russian economy. A World Bank update this month said that Russia’s inflation rate is running around 16 percent, meaning that after adjusting for inflation, pensions contracted 4 percent in the past year. Overall, the economy is shrinking with manufacturing off 5.9 percent, retail services down 11.7 percent and fixed capital investment down 5.2 percent, the World Bank said.

The biggest victim of the energy sector sanctions so far has been a plan for three natural gas pipelines to China. The Russian pivot to China was supposed to open up a major new market for Russia, which currently relies heavily on exports to Europe. Although the deals haven’t been scuttled, they have been postponed, perhaps for years. An increase in worldwide natural gas supplies and liquefied natural gas facilities has cut the global price of natural gas in half during the past year, undermining the rationale for the pipeline...............

http://ubr.ua/ukraine-and-world/power/rada-rassmotrit-proekt-gosbudjeta-2016-i-nalogovuu-reformu-371035
9:25
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine today, December 24, 2015, will consider the bill №3000 of the State Budget of Ukraine for 2016, №3688 bill on amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and some other legislative acts of Ukraine concerning the revenue to balance the budget in 2016. This is stated in the agenda of Parliament, RBC-Ukraine.
Also, people's deputies plan to consider the bill №3704 on Amendments to the Law of Ukraine "On Foreign Economic Activity" (with respect to the powers of the government to apply the appropriate economic measures in the aggressor State), Bill №3657 amending the Law of Ukraine "On State Budget of Ukraine for 2015 "(with respect to the redistribution of certain expenses).
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Can these idiots pass a budget? Or they want a chunk of the IMF money for themselves in return for their vote?
In the Ukrainian Rada anything is possible.

http://www.unian.info/war/1221000-avakov-insists-on-nsdc-meeting-due-to-russian-occupation-of-new-donbas-villages.html
Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov insists on the need to call an urgent meeting of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) on the occupation by Russian proxies of the village of Kominternove and the possible seizure of the villages of Vodiane and Zaichenkove in Donbas.
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As I said earlier, forget Minsk. Putin proceeds to rip up the agreement, as he does with all agreements.
The Russian occupation expands daily.

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http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/313548.html
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Support of 291. What about the other 150?!

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/8-shades-of-crisis--russia-economic-nightmare-year/553703.html
Quite a long report. Not bad. A few references to Ukraine, for example,
With Turkey and Ukraine recently added to the list of countries whose products have been banned, Russia could face food shortfalls of fruits and vegetables next year, the Central Bank warned in a December report.

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13:49
http://nashigroshi.org/2015/12/24/yulyya-tymoshenko-vozhlavyla-rejtynh-parlamentskyh-lzhetsov/
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If I understand correctly, as judged by journalists with regard to speeches made on the 17th December.
No surprise. Tymoshenko would sell her grandmother's bones if she felt it would help her become president.

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The next Russian ruble drop can outdo 2014 shock.

The ruble has room to weaken further, even beyond the record-low it set against the dollar a year ago, without inflicting terminal damage on the Russian economy, according to a survey of analysts, Censor.NET reports citing Bloomberg.

The currency would need to tumble more than 20 percent to at least 90 against the dollar to tip the country into a full-blown crisis, according to 17 of 20 respondents in a Bloomberg survey. Should such a threat emerge, the Bank of Russia has an array of tools at its disposal, including verbal and market interventions, an emergency interest-rate increase and capital controls, they said.

"It would take more than 90 rubles per dollar to provoke significant repercussions," said Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC in Moscow. "In 2015, Russian monetary authorities managed to mostly avoid spillovers from the foreign-currency market and keep the financial system afloat and broadly functional."

Based on historical data, Societe Generale SA estimates that a 10 percent ruble depreciation adds about 50 basis points to a full percentage point to annual inflation in Russia. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina said this month that the ruble's impact on price growth is easing.

The economy will contract 0.5 percent in 2016 from a year before, according to the median estimate of 39 economists in a separate survey, which is down form zero growth expected by the respondents last month. A renewed sell-off in oil in recent weeks pushed banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. to worsen their forecast for the Russian economy.

censor.net.ua In Russian

Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine supported the overall bill obliging the unitary state-owned enterprises and enterprises with state shares to deduct at least 30% of net profit to the state budget from January 1, 2016.

"The purpose of the bill is to ensure that the rights of the state as owner to a portion of the net profit (income), which in general will improve the financial and economic situation in the country", - stated in the explanatory memorandum.

At the same time the implementation of the document does not require additional financial and material costs from the state budget.

The bill states that such a measure will allow in 2016 to bring additional revenues to the state budget totaling about 5.2 billion hryvnia, which will improve the efficiency and quality of management of state property and protect the interests of the state as owner................

bykvu.com In Russian

Today Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with members of the nervous government. According to expressed their claims to the officials, the Russian president begins, finally, to understand, in what turned out to be a catastrophic condition is now Russia and rossiyane.Chem very frightened. Putin, in particular, for the sluggishness officials scolded the issue of the abolition of vehicle tax for heavy vehicles.

"Of course, many issues need to be just, frankly, porastoropnee" - he said. He recalled that the authorities discussed the need to promptly cancel the transport tax, "it would be possible to help people come out of the shadows and at the same time maintain revenues to maintain their family."

According to Putin, there were other situations in which you need to act quickly. It is clear that the President of the Russian Federation is extremely concerned about the massive protests Russian truckers, which began in November. And yesterday, in addition, it was announced on Friday that they will begin an indefinite country-wide protest. In addition, Putin demanded today from their government impossible - to achieve by any means stopping the growth of prices in the country.

Authorities must prevent all market measures "speculative" price increases, threatening to fall in living standards of Russians, he said. "Today unfounded, frankly, the speculative rise in the cost of products, goods and services leads to a reduction in living standards. We need to use all the available market tools to curb rising prices, "- Putin demanded. And urged the government to take measures to increase the market share of "low-cost but high-quality" domestic goods.

Clearly, Putin reported the results of a recent poll showing that in December, the Russians felt a sharp deterioration in living standards. That last VTsIOM reported that in December, all the indices of social well-being of Russians dropped significantly. By most measures negative trend recorded for several consecutive months. Well, perhaps, the Russian president had read yesterday's editorial article in "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" (or reported to him), which was announced stern warning - Russia's inevitable growth of dissent of the deteriorating socio-economic situation. However, the government, alas, does not help Putin..........

newsdaily.com.ua In Russian

Bohdan Khmelnytsky is hailed as a founder of the Ukrainian Cossack State, supreme war leader and patriot. Under Khmelnytsky's leadership, the Pereiaslav Treaty (1654) was concluded which united Ukraine and the tsar of Muscovy, now Russia. This, according to the poet and artist Taras Shevchenko, led to his people's 'enslavement' under Russia.................

To read further go to this link:   uatoday.tv

The Irony of Fate, released in 1976 and set on New Year's Eve, has become a holiday tradition in Russia and other post-Soviet countries, where it is shown on television and watched by millions of families each year.

The film is in danger of being banned in Ukraine because one of the actors who provided a voiceover for the film was put on a list of cultural figures who pose a threat to national security because of her support for Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, the film's director, Eldar Ryazov, who died this year, was an outspoken critic of the Russian government's recent actions..................

To read further go to this link:   uatoday.tv

The Trilateral Contact Group, which met in Minsk to negotiate on the east Ukraine conflict, could not reach any agreement regarding the elections in the militant-occupied Donbas.

Russia is peddling its influence on the issue, according to Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine's representative in the talks.

Kuchma was quoted on December 23 by Interfax-Ukraine as saying that Ukraine should promptly inform the world community that militants violated the ceasefire deal in the Donbas region.

"It's one of key issues we cannot reach an agreement upon," Kuchma said....................

To read further go to this link:   uatoday.tv

If Ukraine truly wants to show they're fighting corruption and crime, they should put Kuchma in front of a court, for murder, for starters.