Ukraine crisis. News in brief. Monday 29 August. [Ukrainian sources]

MONDAY

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NEWS:
National guards, rescuers, police conducted joint anti-terrorist exercise outside Israeli Embassy in Kyiv.  One soldier killed, nine wounded yesterday.  Kyiv reports attacks on border guards' control posts in Donbas.  Russian economy at risk of delayed recovery after Crimea flareup

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National Guard fighters, National Police, State Emergency Service and Security Service officers took part in the interagency anti-terrorist exercise near the Israeli Embassy in Ukraine.
Censor.NET reports citing the Interior Ministry press service.

According to the scenario, hypothetical terrorists, disguised as visitors, entered the embassy premises, took personnel hostages and threatened to blow up the building.

National guards, representatives of the State Emergency Service and the National Police were put on high alert. Soldiers of National Guard's 22nd Separate Brigade cordoned off the area of operation and took their positions.






After an attempt to tackle the "conflict" by peaceful means failed, the operation's active phase, involving the storm of the building and rescue of hostages, started.

Finally, the hostages were freed, and the "terrorists" were detained. According to Israeli experts and instructors, the participants of the exercise demonstrated high level of performance in timely countering possible terrorist threats and improved the interagency cooperation.



ua.censor.net.ua In Ukrainian/український

One Ukrainian soldier was killed and nine received injuries in the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) area on Aug. 28.
Representative of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine on ATO issues, Colonel Andrii Lysenko said at a news briefing, Censor.NET reports.

"Over the past day, one Ukrainian soldier was killed, nine others received injuries in combat," he said.

Earlier, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council reported about 10,000 Ukrainians killed and more than 20,000 injured by Russian-terrorist troops over the past two years.

ua.censor.net.ua In Ukrainian/український

The Ukrainian side to the Joint Center for Control and Cooperation (JCCC) has documented more cases of use of Minsk-banned weapons by illegal armed gangs of the Donbas

Censor.NET reports citing press officer of the Ukrainian side of the JCCC Colonel Vadym Bakai.

The Center's experts recorded another fact of residential area (Krasnohorivka) shelling with Grad MLRSes and 82-mm mortars by the Russian side on Aug. 27. Houses have been damaged.





As a general trend, the volume of civilian shelling by pro-Russian terrorists with the use of heavy artillery and mortars has increased. As a rule, this tactics is used by the enemy to provoke hatred towards Ukrainian Armed Forces among local residents. They are also aiming at forcing the Ukrainian side to retaliate, which will allow accusing the Ukrainian side of using banned weapons.

On average in August, pro-Russian gangs employed mortars and artillery systems 36 to 67 times daily, using 230-280 projectiles and 89-120 shells per day.

According to the Ukrainian side of the JCCC, the enemy violates the cease-fire about 400-450 times per week, 160-170 cases of which are employing Minsk-banned weapons. These rates have persisted for a while now, the experts say.

Another trend of pro-Russian militant's crimes is conducting fire tasks from residential areas of cities and towns. The illegal armed gangs open fire from neighborhoods of Donetsk, Horlivka, Makiivka, Yasynuvata.

As a rule, the 'hottest' areas are those that are most easily accessible by the enemy in terms of artillery employment.

In addition, industrial infrastructure of Donetsk, Horlivka and Makiivka allows the illegal armed gangs creating, maintaining, and replenishing artillery ammunition warehouses.

JCCC will continue recording all violations of the Minsk agreements by the enemy and provide information about the pro-Russian militants' crimes in the Donbas.

ua.censor.net.ua In Ukrainian/український

After President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of plotting terrorist attacks on the Black Sea peninsula this month, the chance that Western countries will scrap economic sanctions against Russia has declined, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Of the 21 asked, 52% see the European Union beginning to lift its penalties in the next 12 months. That's down from 69% in the previous survey. Only 10% expect the U.S. to start removing its sanctions, down from 19% a month ago, Bloomberg wrote. "Increasing Ukraine tensions will undermine investor confidence, keep EU and U.S. sanctions in place and further put off foreign capital flows, as Putin will not be focused on economic reforms," said Christopher Shiells, a senior analyst at Informa Global Markets. "This will weaken the ruble and force the central bank to adopt a more cautious, hawkish tone." The sanctions imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 have compounded pain from a drop in oil prices, triggering capital outflows and a plunge in the ruble. With oil now near $50, the government is running its widest budget deficit since 2010 and forecasts the economy to growth less than 1% next year. The central bank kept the key rate unchanged last month at 10.5% after a June cut that ended nearly a year holding pat. The ruble has gained more than 13% against the dollar this year, the second best performer among emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, after the Brazilian real. Still, the gains have yet to erase last year's 20% loss......................

Access complete text of the editorial:  unian.info

The enemy opened fire on the Maryinka post, located on the Maryinka checkpoint track, after 8:00 p.m., the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service press service said in a release issued on Monday. "Fire was opened from the direction of the populated area of Oleksandrivka, which is located in the uncontrolled territory, using firearms and grenade launchers," the report said.

Closer to midnight, the enemy opened fire on the Berezove control post, where 82mm mortars were used, and the shots were fired from the direction of the populated area of Olenivka, Kyiv said. "Some ten mine explosions were registered near the border guards' posts," the State Border Guard Service said....

en.interfax.com.ua

Iranian officials say they have deployed a new Russian-made long-range missile system to protect its Fordo nuclear facility, according to Radio Liberty.

A video on state television showed an S-300 carrier truck in Fordo, raising its missile launchers toward the sky, among other weaponry. The video was broadcast only hours after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a speech to air force commanders, including Esmaili, in which he said the country's military power was solely for defensive purposes.

"The S-300 system is a defense system not an assault one, but the Americans did their best for Iran not to get hold of it," Khamenei said......

unian.info

First, he fired his long-time aide and chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, and moved him to a lower position. A few weeks earlier, Putin fired at least three regional governors and replaced them with his personal bodyguards.

Removing that many governors is a bit odd. Replacing them with bodyguards is very odd. Then removing someone like Ivanov is extremely odd.

Second, Russia raised pressure on Ukraine. The Russians claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian-held Crimea. They announced that they sent S-400 anti-air missiles to Crimea. With a 250-mile range, these missiles can reach deep into Ukraine.

Finally, Putin has shown some signs that he may force Armenia to return parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, a contested region, to Azerbaijan.



Armenia is hostile toward Turkey over what it calls the Armenian genocide and Turkey’s refusal to apologize for it. Armenia is historically a close Russian ally, and Russian troops are stationed there.

After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Moscow, Putin met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and gave him the news.

This is a radical change in Russian policy .

Putin is now seen as an aggressive absolute dictator making large foreign policy concessions at the expense of close allies—for what seems like no visible gain. But the truth has always been far more complex.

Now, it is even more convoluted.

Putin's Two Major Problems

Putin has two huge problems.

I have already written about how Russia’s economy has been in free-fall since oil prices dropped. Russia recently released its Q2 GDP estimate that showed a slowing in economic contraction. That is good news, in a way.

The second problem is Putin’s failure in Ukraine. The West sees him as the aggressor, and he was. Yet, the tale began with Western-backed protesters ousting a pro-Russian government and replacing it with a pro-Western one.

Putin seized formal control of Crimea even though Russia had broad informal control through its large military presence. He tried to incite an uprising in eastern Ukraine but failed. The Russian-backed rebels were forced to a stalemate by Ukrainian troops. Putin became aggressive after he suffered a grievous reversal in Ukraine, but it didn’t get him what he wanted.

In Russia, the sense of a national security threat eclipsed the economic crisis. At first, such threats spawn huge support for a country’s leader (the same is seen in the US). But, support fades over time when no solutions are found.

It has been two years since the twin crises happened. Putin’s support will inevitably erode.

Two Layers of Support

Putin has two layers of support.

One is public opinion. This is not trivial, but in the end, not decisive. The other is the elite, which in Russia consists of oligarchs and the intelligence apparatus. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, these two groups meshed in a way that benefitted both.

There is a great deal of infighting in these groups, and Putin has cracked down on some oligarchs who were seen as a threat to his power. Structurally, though, there is a coalition of elites in Russia to whom Putin must answer.

Boris Yeltsin—Putin’s predecessor—was deposed by a coalition of elites because he allowed the economy to virtually disintegrate and the US to embarrass Russia during the Kosovo war.

Putin was elevated to leadership to fix the economy and restore Russia as a great power.For Russians, this means a great deal. They remember what Stalin’s lack of preparedness in World War II did to them.
Questionable Loyalties

It is now 2016, and the elites—and increasingly the public—are realizing that the economy is not going to recover.

They know that slowing the economic decline is the best they can hope for. They also realize that Ukraine has not been secured, and that the grand foray into Syria has become a stalemate.

The Russian situation was much better in 2013. There was no reason to question Putin’s leadership. What lurked under the surface could be ignored. But today, the wealthy are hurting.

This is not to say that Putin is without power. He has a strong network of supporters, money, control of the security services, and so on. His problem is that the Russian elite is uneasy, and loyalties can shift. It is not paranoia to be uncertain about who remains loyal and who is plotting.

Putin is not nearly as powerful as Erdoğan, so using a coup to purge the entire country isn’t going to work because it might succeed.

Explaining Putin's Moves

Putin can act on two principles. When he detects a threat, he can move against it very quickly. Or if he doesn’t detect a threat, he can assume one still exists.

In that case, he would destabilize a potential threat by removing key players. Whether they were an actual threat or not doesn’t matter.

Everyone else will wonder.

Further, Putin would replace former key players with people who never dreamed of attaining such a high rank. They know that if anything happened to Putin, they would be return to the cold.

That explains the firings and replacements. I think that Putin knows there is a threat but is uncertain of its origin. His actions are a way to declare that he knows more than he actually does.

That will not be enough.

He must do something substantial, and that can only happen in the area of national security. He has been courting China for a significant alliance, but the Chinese don’t see how Russia can help them.

The coup in Turkey—and Erdoğan’s apology for the downing of a Russian jet—opened the door for him. A strategic alliance with Turkey would disrupt the American containment policy and allow Russian influence in the Middle East to surge.

Putin needs to convince Erdoğan to enter into an alliance. As a down payment, he offered Armenia’s national interests. I doubt that Erdoğan is buying, but he will use it to extract concessions from the Americans.

Putin must also address his Ukraine problem, and that is precisely what he is doing.

In my view, the Russian military is still not in a position to move into and occupy Ukraine, even without resistance.
And Putin knows it is not a slam dunk.

His actions create the image of confronting the Ukrainians. It could mean war, as I might be wrong about either Russia’s military or Putin’s eagerness. But I think it is a prelude to negotiations.

Putin wants a neutral Ukraine, without Western weapons or guarantees. If Putin can force a negotiation and come away with a concession, it will do wonders for his image.

In the meantime, Putin looks good in Russia when he really needs to shine.

Putin Should Survive Until 2018

Putin’s personal future is of little consequence. Whoever replaces him will come from the same elite. Any newcomer will face the same problems and lack of options.

And this is Putin’s highest card.

The prize for anyone who topples him is to become the leader of a country in deep economic and strategic crisis. It would be much easier to let Putin carry the blame (and what little glory he can extract).

But, this is where Putin’s pre-emptive moves on personnel become dangerous. He may convince powerful people that they are in danger, forcing them to defend themselves.

I think that Putin will survive until the end of his elected term. But fear makes politics unpredictable, and geopolitical analysis doesn’t work on the thinking of worried men drinking vodka to calm their nerves.

groong.usc.edu

Head of EU delegation to Ukraine – Ambassador Jan Tombinski having secured the EU Association Agreement for Ukraine gives his farewell interview to UT correspondent Volodymyr Solohub before leaving his office.

"It's not only a privilege but also a huge duty to be a part of historical processes. Comparing with what I remember from my first weeks and months in Ukraine in 2012 and 2013 and comparing with what I see now, I have a sense that a paradigm of how Ukraine operates changed," Tombinski said.

"People first started to behave as citizens, not only as voters or object of different political manipulations, that people consider Ukraine as their own country. They started trusting the country and that they now believe that the country has a future," he added.................




Access complete text of the editorial:  uatoday.tv

Delegation of the United States Armed Forces Command of the Land Forces in Europe led by Lieutenant General Frederick “Ben” Hodges, commander of the U.S. army in Europe, visited ‘Mariupol’ tactical force in the anti–terrorist operation (ATO) area Aug. 28.

Censor.NET reports referring to the press service of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

The U.S. delegation got acquainted with the analysis of the security situation along the demarcation line covered by the 'Mariupol' tactical force. The military were provided with facts of repeated blatant violations of the Minsk agreements on the part of the Russian-terrorist forces. They were also provided with documented evidence of the Russian occupying forces' crimes against the local residents and deliberate destruction of infrastructure in the Donbas using large-caliber cannon artillery and mortars, as well as tanks and other hardware.




The U.S. military also visited one of the mobile hospitals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of the working visit. Ukraine's military partners including Commander of the Regional Health Command Europe Brigadier General Dennis LeMaster got acquainted with the immediate medical assistance system, hospital's facilities and staff. The U.S. general visited the wards where the soldiers wounded in the anti-terrorist operation in eastern Ukraine were being treated.

At the end of the working visit, Ben Hodges noted that the killed and wounded fellows-in-arms made the military understand the need to prepare the missions more carefully and train rookies more efficiently since they would make the future of the army. Therefore, according to him, the U.S. Armed Forces will continue providing assistance to the Ukrainian army.

ua.censor.net.ua In Ukrainian/український

Medvedev said that Russian compatriots "are the most powerful force of opinion which foreign power can not be ignored"

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia is ready to defend Russian citizens abroad "from harassment by local authorities or organizations." He said this during the World Forum "In union with Russia," wrote UNIAN .

"We will defend your rights and interests anywhere in the world, to protect against discrimination of harassment by local authorities or organizations, if need be, assist in addressing social issues, including pension issues and the question of health insurance to help other possible ways "- said Medvedev.

"We have to protect their people, their nationality, their history and culture. And I will say this, perhaps somewhat pathetic thing, but it seems to me very important, I want you to, like all other citizens of our country, felt every minute that yours is Russia - a country that never left and not leave, as it did in South Ossetia and Crimea ", - he added. However, Medvedev said that Russian compatriots "are the most powerful force of opinion which foreign power can not be ignored."

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

According to the bureau, tracking Obama was conducted from July

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested a US man in Massachusetts, who was about to commit an attempt on President Barack Obama, according to TV channel Fox News.

It is noted that the 40-year-old Joseph Harhyulo was arrested Aug. 27 after the conducted searches at his home, where he found a solid arsenal of firearms and bladed weapons.

According to the bureau, an American surveillance was conducted from July this year. Employees of the Office learned that Harhyulo going to kill Obama during his vacation on Martha-Vin'yard where the US leader was resting with his family from 6 to 21 August.

In addition, according to authorities, Harhyulo repeatedly stated intention to deal with law enforcement agencies of the United States and Muslims.

In May 2014 a judge in South Dakota has sentenced 44-year-old James Makveya, preparing an attempt on Barack Obama to death.

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

Damaged houses the private sector, gas pipeline and electric street network
Avdeevka Donetsk region a day pro fighters fired 17 times, firing about 400 shells of various types of weapons.

The press officer of the Joint Ukrainian center for control and coordination Vadim Buckeye, reports ATO headquarters.

"At the direction of the village flew nearly 400 ammunition produced many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. Shells and mines were flying in the direction Yasinovataya, mineral, Yakovlyevky, Donetsk airport Spartacus "- said in a statement.

Damaged houses the private sector, gas pipeline and electric street network. Without light and gas here left many villages. Among civilians locality no injuries.






Militants NFP horde trying to "PEREORATY" Avdiyivka

Yesterday Avdiyivka not experienced the most horrific day - 17 attacks. Towards this locality flew nearly 400 ammunition produced many weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. Militants struck NFP horde of tanks, 122 mm artillery systems and mortars of all kinds. It seems that they are trying to land a pereoraty here. Shells were flying everywhere and mine.

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

Prosecutors Bettina Bago said that the case of one unnamed Swedish author whose work was translated and published in Hungary

At the presentation of the prosecution Budapest Hungarian capital court ruled to block nearly two dozen Hungarian web pages, where you can order a book on Holocaust denial. However, the proceedings of the criminal case currently suspended due to stay reseller edition and author of the book abroad, informs Radio Liberty.

Prosecutors Bettina Bago said that the case of one unnamed Swedish author whose work was translated and published in Hungary. According to the spokesperson, this book clearly extends according to National Socialist organizations of Holocaust denial.

In order to prevent such crimes in the future Budapest Court approved a resolution to block nearly 20 websites.

During the years 1941-45 the victims of the Holocaust in Hungary were about 400,000 Jews. According to researchers, every third prisoner largest Nazi death camp "Auschwitz" in occupied Poland was a Hungarian national.

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

Law enforcement officers found that prosecutors, acting in collusion, demanded that the representative of the commercial structure of 30 thousand. Dollars. for withdrawing the arrest of accounts of the company

Employees of the Security Service of Ukraine detained for bribe three more prosecutors, Kyiv region. The press service of the SBU on the page in Facebook.

"Law enforcement officers found that prosecutors, acting in collusion, demanded that the representative of the commercial structure of 30 thousand. Dollars. for withdrawing the arrest of accounts of the company. A businessman suspected of tax evasion. Employees of security services detained the defendants in the case in a working office after receiving the first part of a bribe of 15 thousand. Dollars. United States, "- said the press service.

On this fact openly criminal proceedings under Part. 3. 368 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Continues pre-trial investigation.

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

The corresponding message is the official mail.

Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Communications (Roskomnadzor) blocked access to the site Ukrainian crisis media center (UKMTS) in the Russian Federation.

Reported UKMTS.

The corresponding message is the official mail organization. The reason for the blockage was the press release for the briefing Mustafa Dzhemilev, Refat Chubarov and Lenur Islyamova on public blockade of the Crimea, published another 8 September 2015.

"Sent messages limit access to information resources http://uacrisis.org/ru/33187-blockade-der-krim in telecommunication networks, including the network" Internet ", based on the requirements of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation" dated 26.08 .2016 № 27-31-2016 / Yd3637-16 as one that contains calls to riots realization of extremist activity, participation in mass (public) events held in violation of the established order, "- said in a statement.

It is noted also that the owner of an information resource must "immediately delete the information" and then "send a message to the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Communications, for the purpose of verification and restoration of access if confirmation removal. "

Team Ukrainian crisis media center says he will not remove any posts from the site UKMTS under this requirement.

"Calling the statements of the leaders of Crimean Tatar people" extremist ", the General Prosecutor of the Russian Federation would not forget that Russia annexed homeland indigenous people of Crimea, violating a number of rules of international law", - stated in the message media center.

"Claims Prosecutor General's Office and" Roskomnadzor "- is another example of attack on freedom of expression, which is under the same cover of" fighting extremism "as the arrests of activists of the Crimean Tatar and Ukrainian patriots and the prohibition of" Majlis ". As a public organization established to provide objective information about events in Ukraine, we will not be subject to censorship, especially by the state that leads hybrid war against Ukraine."

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

Vershbow reiterated that NATO did not suit such checks never end times of the Cold War

In the North Atlantic alliance have noticed that Russia is increasingly not satisfied with previously announced military exercises under the pretext of inspections combat readiness of its troops.

This affects its relations with NATO, said Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow Union - said Radio Liberty.

Over the past two years has been more than a dozen such training, he said in the course of a visit to Romania.

He said that NATO was not satisfied such checks never end times of the Cold War.

According to Vershbow, NATO would increase transparency and predictability in relations with Russia, which are now "very poor" and stabilize them.

But NATO said sheikhdoms if Moscow is also interested in stability and predictability, these "combat readiness inspection" does not lead to that goal.

glavcom.ua In Ukrainian/український

In Uzbekistan, 79 th year, died by President Islam Karimov.

This writes the news agency Fergana citing its sources.

Official confirmation yet.

But the head of the Duma Committee on International Affairs Alexei Pushkov Russia in its Twitter has said that the death of Karimov opening phase of uncertainty the fate of Uzbekistan.

"Death to Islam Karimov opening phase of uncertainty the fate of Uzbekistan - the key countries in the region. The shorter this phase is, the better," - he wrote.

Source UP surrounded by President Karimov confirmed the information about the death of the President.

However, RIA Novosti quoted a source in the office of the President of Uzbekistan, wrote that reports of the death of President untrue stable condition.

Karimov was elected president March 24, 1990 at the session of the Supreme Soviet of the Uzbek SSR. In an alternative basis became president again in 1991. In 1995, the presidential term Karimov was again extended to 2000. In 2000, 2007 and 2015, he was elected head of state consistently.

ukr.obozrevatel.com In Ukrainian/український